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Interview with Stanley Greenberg Tom Fitton, President, Judicial Watch: Next we would like to welcome Stanley Greenberg, author of the new book, The Two Americas. As one of the top pollsters in the country, Mr. Greenberg advised President Clinton, Vice President Al Gore and leaders all over the world including Tony Blair and former South African President Nelson Mandela. Mr. Greenberg, welcome to the Judicial Watch Report. Greenberg: I'm delighted. Thanks for having me. Fitton: I appreciate your willingness to come on the show and talk about your new book. People are starting to take notice of it, as you are able to point out in a dramatic way a new divide between Democrats and Republicans with respect to religiosity. This is a relatively new phenomenon. Can you describe that for us? Greenberg: Let me, first of all, say one of the things I am proud of with respect to this book is that it has received enthusiastic support from both right and left. I tried to be fair to both sides and I tried not to wallow in negativism and not to reinforce the problems that I highlight in the book. I have also tried to make sure people can see that there is a way out. We do not just point out the problems, but we also show people how we can make a better country. But on the subject of religiosity, you are absolutely right. We have two Americas. The heart and soul of the Republican coalition are the white evangelicals who want more faith in politics. They resent the moral decline, the intrusion on their ability to practice their faith. George W. Bush speaks to them in a very direct way. And then you have the Democratic side. They have the traditional support from minority voters. But at the heart of the Democratic coalition are people I call "the secular warriors" -- the people who don't go to church and don't own a gun. Fitton: Has the country always been this evenly divided? Greenberg: No. If you look at the history of the country, one party usually dominates a particular era, and that party is not just dominant politically. They almost always dominate the ideas of the time. They set the direction of the country. Since 1952, neither party has been able to dominate for long periods of time which is particularly evident in the last three presidential elections. They have become increasingly polarized and increasingly uncivil. The year 2000 represents our times. Fitton: In terms of 2004, do you see another potential 2000 in terms of the closeness of the popular vote? Greenberg: I do. Obviously it depends on whom the Democrats nominate, but George W. Bush has not expanded the political base of the Republican Party. They are pretty much where they were in 2000. He has tried to help all of the parts of the Republican base with tax cuts, respect for religion, and pro-business policies and this has solidified the Republican coalition, but it has not expanded. Fitton: At Judicial Watch, we do not get too involved in the policy side of the debate. We do not take positions on elections and we do not get involved in specific legislation. I want to ask you about the issue of ethics in government and how it will play in the next election. If I recall, in the last election, something like 44 percent of those polled thought ethics in government was a key factor in determining their vote. What is your feel for the concerns that voters have for ethics in government? Is it an important issue for them? Greenberg: My sense is voters are very sensitive to the issue of ethics. It is a key factor in the political map as it exists and it is also very important as to why George W. Bush is president. There is no doubt what happened at the end of the Clinton Administration took its toll not just on Clinton but on Democrats, particularly in rural areas. But it is important to point out that these voters are also upset about corporate scandals. They are the ones most likely to talk about what is happening with CEOs and in the corporate boardroom as representing bad values, greed, irresponsibility, and people not learning right and wrong. This makes it quite possible that many of the rural areas which are important presidentially -- states like Missouri, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa -- will be impacted by those kinds of ethics issues. Fitton: Well, it strikes me that these corporate scandals have activated a significant portion of the Democratic party. Their antagonism for Bush is based in part on the fact that they think he is dishonest. One of the critiques I have heard of the Bush Administration calls to question whether or not there are conflicts of interest in awarding contracts to Halliburton. I think politicians here in Washington just do not understand the distaste the American people have for the revolving door business relationships that both Republicans and Democrats defend. Greenberg: Well, it is a cinch that the powerful operate under different rules and can get away with different things, and this is what makes people so very angry. This resentment of the cultural elite has been a very important part of what seals the conservative side of the divide and continues to reshape the political map. You are right to highlight it. Fitton: I get the feeling from looking at your materials, that maybe the labels "liberal" and "conservative" do not apply when it comes to the issue of ethics. Greenberg: I do not think we get very far with those labels. In part because while half the country is conservative, and while there is a relatively small number of liberals, the 30 percent who are moderates are pretty close to the liberals in their political views. In practice, they lean pretty heavily to the Democrats. "Conservative" or "not conservative" is probably the better divide. In any case, the "conservative - liberal" divide does not quite capture the parity of the two parties -- two Americas with a division down the middle. It also does not capture the fact that a lot of people hold attitudes that are anti-establishment or anti-incumbent at a particular time, based on things not related to ideology. Fitton: Stan, we appreciate your time this weekend. Stanley Greenberg, author of the new book, The Two Americas, available in bookstores now. SIDEBAR: Stanley Greenberg is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. He founded the company in 1980 after teaching at Yale, where he won a Guggenheim Fellowship. He has a BA from Miami University and a Ph.D. from Harvard. He has been polling advisor to President Clinton, Tony Blair, and Nelson Mandela. "The Two Americas: Our Current Political Deadlock and How to Break It tells the history of each party's failed efforts to dominate the era's politics and ideas, radically changing the political landscape. The book provides an in-depth guide to the new groups at the center of our politics. Internationally renowned political strategist and pollster Stanley Greenberg puts the reader in the room with the strategists and politicians and shows how each party can win, even shatter the impasse." - Amazon.com
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