With the economic crisis and “change” in US Foreign policy, China takes up a lot of space in the room with just its trunk. President Obama could and should engage the Middle East and Russia (and arguably Latin America), but it is imperative that China remain on the top of a short list of foreign policy priorities. Since President Nixon’s historic trip and diplomatic efforts in China in the 1970s, the US has recognized the importance of the world’s most populous nation. The U.S. focus, however, has been based on trade and resembles a relationship between a parent and a child. China, however, has grown up. With its holdings of US Treasuries, the “China price” on goods, military developments, and diplomatic finesse with other nations like North Korea, China is now at eye level.

The think tank and academic worlds have paid particularly close attention to China through many recent educational seminars. On July 14 and 15, Brookings Institution hosted the “38th Taiwan-U.S. Conference on Contemporary China” with a focus on “China Faces the Future.” Distinguished scholars and press from around the world packed several rooms and an intermingling of Mandarin and English resonated. Speaking from their respective expertise, the analysts spoke on cross-strait relations, the economy, US-China relations, and China’s external strategy.

Throughout the conference, speakers alluded to China’s rise and its significance. The speakers did not hesitate in presenting China as a major world player in a few years time. Vincent Wang, Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Richmond, emphasized the estimates that in 2030, China will contend for the number 1 or number 2 spot in the world; “China is trying to be the number two runner in a marathon.” The speakers noted the likelihood and goal that China will replace the US in the international arena. The speakers seemed to agree that China will be “shaping” the international community to achieve its objectives. According to David Finkelstein, Vice President and Director Center for Naval Analysis China Studies, China is shaping the international community through diplomatic initiatives, a “going out” (going abroad to seek resources, employment, and investment) policy, military development, and through information dissemination.

China’s rise poses particular challenges to the United States especially in terms of China’s military buildup and human rights issues. Vincent Wang queried what would happen after China rises? Will it remain peaceful? Does China even know the answer? In terms of China’s military buildup, David Finkelstein stressed that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is “coming online as an operational asset.” Finkelstein noted that the PLA has developed a larger role deploying expeditionary and peace keeping missions. He warns that the world should not be surprised to see more low intensity conflict. His estimate coincides with the former Director of National Intelligence, Mike McConnell’s, prediction that over the next several decades, the world is at greater risk for conflict due to resources. During question and answer, Finkelstein noted that there is “enough evidence to posit with some degree of confidence [that China’s military is] developing capabilities intended to deny access to others in the region [and] will inevitably cause tensions.”

Another major challenge facing US policymakers in terms of China is the complex issue of human rights. Michael Green, Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that the Obama administration has not “found its sea legs” on China’s human rights issues. He remarked that the Obama administration is presenting “very conflicting signals.” On one hand, Secretary of State Clinton voiced a “softer tone on human rights” and later publicly recognized the need for China to buy Treasury bills. Yet President Obama’s speech in Africa honed in on human rights. Green anticipates that President Obama’s trip to China in November will be a significant moment for his administration’s China policy.

Given these challenges for US foreign policy, Wang offered a resonating comment: “we can observe capabilities, but we cannot [observe] intentions.” As China tries to shape the international community, the US should also be “hedging.” While the US cannot perceive China’s intentions, it would behoove the policy wonks to observe and limit aid to programs that might propel the PLA and allow the Chinese to clamp down on dissent.

To better understand US actions in light of China’s intentions and capabilities, Judicial Watch is pursuing several investigations. Among the investigations are US cooperation with China on technology and US cognizance of dissent movements in China.