As the Obama administration adheres to populist calls to withdraw forces from Iraq, violence surges to levels unseen in the past year.  Even though the violence has not yet regained the force it had in 2004, the temporary stability in 2008 is starting to become just a memory.  While the troop withdrawal began under President Bush in 2008 with expectations to be complete in 2011, President Obama campaigned on his commitment to withdraw troops from Iraq and has moved the deadline up to August 2010.  Part of his pledge was to redeploy troops to Afghanistan and complete withdrawal from Iraq within 16 months.  His opponents lambasted him for focusing on a timetable in place of ground conditions.  During the campaign, however, Obama sought to demonstrate his awareness of ground conditions with a Congressional Delegation to Iraq in July 2008.  Even prior to his departure to Iraq in July 2008, he noted that he would merely “refine” his Iraq strategy.  Judicial Watch obtained the CODEL’s briefing documents from United States Central Command through a Freedom of Information Act request.

The “15 July 2008 Multi-National Force Iraq Commander’s Counterinsurgency Guidance” reveals information Obama had access to during his campaign.  Highlights of the guidance include:  

- Hold areas that have been secured.  Once we clear an area, we must retain it.  Develop the plan for holding an area before starting to clear it.  The people need to know that we and our Iraqi partners will not abandon them.  When reducing forces, gradually thin our presence rather than handing off or withdrawing completely.  Ensure situational awareness even after transfer of responsibility to Iraqi forces.  

- Employ all assets to isolate and defeat the terrorists and insurgents.  Counter-terrorist forces alone cannot defeat Al-Qaeda and other extremists.  Success requires a comprehensive approach that employs all forces and all means at our disposal- non-kinetic as well as kinetic.  Employ Coalition and Iraqi conventional and special operations forces, Sons of Iraq, and all other available non-military multipliers in accordance with the attached “Anaconda Strategy.”

- Manage expectations.  Be cautious and measured in announcing progress. Note what has been      accomplished, but also acknowledge what still needs to be done.  Avoid premature declarations of success.  Ensure our troopers and our partners are aware of our assessments and recognize that any counterinsurgency operation has innumerable challenges, that enemies get a vote, and that progress is likely to be slow.

The guidelines call for thinning troop presence rather than a complete withdrawal in order to provide stability and isolate terrorists.  Meanwhile, the commander urges that success should not be overemphasized and progress will be slow.  The current Iraq strategy prioritizes a timetable dictating removal over the commander’s guidance. From 2004-2008, violence began to decrease in correlation to counterinsurgency guidance on troop activities.  Removing troops may open the flow of violence; troop levels may have helped inhibit violence in 2008.  In fact, as US troops withdraw, violence escalates and Al Qaeda reemerges.  General David Petraeus stated in May 2009 that the Al Qaeda pipeline to Iraq through Syria has been “reactivated.”  Meanwhile, America’s exit may initiate a leadership vacuum in Iraq that Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia would be all too happy to fill.  

 - Jenny Small

Related Reading:

After Visit, Obama Defends Iraq Plan

Mr. Obama in Iraq

McCain Hits Obama on Iraq Visit

McCain Highlights Differences with Obama Over Iraq