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JW v State Abedin production 9 00684 (Searchable)

JW v State Abedin production 9 00684 (Searchable)

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United States Department State
Washington, D.C. 20520
June 30, 2016
Case No. F-2015-06322
Segment: IPS-03, IPS-10
Mr. William Marshall
425 Third Street SW, Suite 800
Washington, 20024
Dear Mr. Marshall: refer our letter dated May 31, 2016, regarding the release certain Department State
material under the Freedom oflnformation Act (the FOIA), U.S.C. 552.
Our review ongoing, and have determined that additional documents may released full, 130 may released with excisions, and must withheld full. All released
material enclosed. enclosure explains the FOIA exemptions and other grounds for withholding material.
Where have made excisions, the applicable exemptions are marked each document.
All non-exempt material that reasonably segregable from the exempt material has been
released. For the documents withheld full, have cited FOIA Exemptions and U.S.C. 552 (b)(5) and (b)(6). will keep you informed your case progresses. you have any questions, your attorney
may contact Trial Attorney, Caroline Anderson, (202) 305-8645
Caroline.J.Anderson@usdoj.gov. Please refer the case number shown above all
correspondence about this case.
Sincerely,
Eric Stein, Acting Co-Director
Office Information Programs and Services
Enclosures: stated.
The Freedom Information Act USC 552)
FOIA Exemptions
(b)(1)
Withholding specifically authorized under Executive Order the interest national
defense foreign policy, and properly classified. E.O. 12958, amended, includes
the following classification categories:
1.4(a)
1.4(b)
1.4(c)
1.4(d)
1.4(e)
Military plans, systems, operations
Foreign government information
Intelligence activities, sources methods, cryptology
Foreign relations foreign activities the US, including confidential sources
Scientific, technological, economic matters relating national security,
including defense against transnational terrorism
1.4(f) U.S. Government programs for safeguarding nuclear materials facilities
1.4(g) Vulnerabilities capabilities systems, installations, infrastructures, projects,
plans, protection services relating national security, including defense
against transnational terrorism
1.4(h) Information weapons mass destruction
(b)(2)
Related solely the internal personnel rules and practices agency
(b)(3)
Specifically exempted from disclosure statute (other than USC 552), for example:
ARMEX
CIA
EXPORT
FSA
INA
IRAN
Arms Export Control Act, USC 2778(e)
Central Intelligence Agency Act 1949, USC 403(g)
Export Administration Act 1979, App. USC 2411 (c)(1)
Foreign Service Act 1980, USC 4003 4004
Immigration and Nationality Act, USC 1202(f)
Iran Claims Settlement Act, Sec 505, USC 1701, note
(b)(4)
Privileged/confidential trade secrets, commercial financial information from person
(b)(5)
lnteragency intra-agency communications forming part the deliberative process,
attorney-client privilege, attorney work product
(b)(6)
Information that would constitute. clearly unwarranted invasion personal privacy
(b)(7)
Information compiled for law enforcement purposes that would:
(A) interfere with enforcement proceedings
(B) deprive person fair trial
(C) constitute unwarranted invasion personal privacy
(D) disclose confidential sources
(E) disclose investigation techniques
(F) endanger life physical safety individual
(b)(8)
Prepared for government agency regulating supervising financial institutions
(b)(9)
Geological and geophysical information and data, including maps, concerning wells
Other Grounds for Withholding
Material not responsive FOIA request, excised with the agreement the requester
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939542 Date: 06/29/2016
From:
Sent:
Jiloty, Lauren 
To:
hdr22@clintonemail.com
RE. Voice mail
Wednesday, Fehruary 11, 2009
Subject:
RELEASE
FULL
1111 going set todoy, and Ill get lhc password and download your
messages. -Orlginnl Mei;Nogcfrom (ma11lo.hdf2l@clintonemo1l.coml
Senl: Wednesday, February 2009 11:41
To: Jiloty, 1.aurcn
Subj~cl: Vu1ce mdrl
The phone says Rnow vo1ccmails.
Original Message
From .,Lauren Jiloty hdr22@clintoncm com
Sent: Feb 11, 2009 10.28
Subject: Voi~e mail have your new munber. asked Justin about Monday and said
voice maii hadnt )et been sel Ill ask him again
Original Message
From. [m3ilto:hdf22@cllntonemail com]
Sent: Wedne~day. Fehruory 2009
To: Jiloty, Lauren
Subject: Vorce mail you have new number you can check messages 09/01/2015
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939542 Date: 06/29/2016
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939545 Date: 06/29/2016
From:
Senc:
To:
Subject: 
Wednesday, Fe~ruary 11, 2009 :42
Lauren Jiloty 
Call list
Judi ~ial
Watch Inc. Via FOIA
RELEASE
FULL
lls add Ron Dellums. 09/01/2015
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939545 Date: 06/29/2016
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 Wake-Up Call/or the and China:
Stress Testing Symbiotic Relationship
RELEASE FULL
Stephen Roach
Chairman
Morgan Stanley Asia
Presented before
The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission the Congress
Hearing
Chinas Role the Origins and Response the Global Recession
February 17, 2009
Washington, 09/01/2015
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 Wake-Up Call/or the and China:
Stress Testing Symbiotic Relationship
Stephen Roach
Since the turn the century, two nations have been more important driving the
global economy than the United States and China The American consumer has been the
dominant force the demand side the global economy, whereas the Chinese producer
has been the most powerful force the supply side. Few argued with the payback.
Over the four and half years ending mid-2007, world GDP growth averaged nearly the strongest and most sustained boom the global economy since the early 1970s.
But now both engines are sputtering, with ominous consequences for world its worst
crisis since the 1930s. This poses great challenges for each nation, well the
bilateral relationship between them. There hope but comes with big China
and the United States pull together forging common solutions. However, these two
nations end odds with one another, they will both suffer with dire consequences
for the rest crisis-torn global economy. The stakes are enormous. There
margin for error. World Crisis nation has been spared the impacts this wrenching financial crisis and recession.
While Americas so-called subprime crisis may have been the spark that ignited the
inferno, every region this globalized world now faltering lock-step fashion. That
includes China long the most resilient economy otherwise weakened world. And includes the rest increasingly China-centric Asia, where all economies either have
tumbled into outright recession are slowing sharply. Ten years after the Asian
financial crisis wreaked havoc the region, new crisis hand. Far from having
decoupled from the rest the world, Asias problems and Chinas particular are
tightly linked the crisis and recession that started America and have since spread
like wildfire throughout the developed world.
These problems have arisen, large part, because the unbalanced state both
economies. Americas excess consumption model serious trouble because the asset
bubbles that have long supported property and credit have both burst. Chinas
export-led growth model trouble because being adversely impacted massive
external demand shock that very much outgrowth Americas post-bubble
compression consumer demand. The rest Asia export-dependent economies,
which have become tightly integrated into China-centric supply chain has nowhere
hide. Ten years after the wrenching upheaval 1997-98, Asia facing another crisis. 09/01/2015
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Significantly, these imbalances did not occur isolation from each other. Americas
consumption bubble was, effect, sourced equally destabilizing Asian export
bubble. And now both sets bubbles have burst the demand side well the
supply side the global economy. had happen some point: Long simmering
global imbalances have finally come head post-bubble world (see Figure
China: Unbalanced and Unstable
During the boom, Chinas imbalances actually worked its favor. Over the 2001
2007 period, the export share Chinese GDP nearly doubled from 20% 36% while
the global export share world GDP went from 24% (see Figures and 3).
other words, Chinas timing was perfect. upped the ante its export dependence
precisely the moment when global trade enjoyed its most spectacular growth. That
effectively turbo-charged Chinas benefits from the strongest global boom since the early
1970s, powering GDP growth 10.4% average rate the seven years ending 2007.
That was then. Reflecting the impacts rare synchronous recession the US, Europe,
and Japan, the world trade boom has now gone bust. And Chinese exports, which had
been surging 25% year-over-year rate recently mid-2008, reversed course with vengeance ending the year mode outright contraction, falling 2.8%
December.
With exports such large and rapidly expanding slice the Chinese economy, little
wonder measures aggregate activity slowed equally dramatic fashion. Industrial
output increased only December one-third the average growth pace
the preceding five years. And real GDP growth ended the year just 6.8%-in sharp
contrast the nearly 12% pace the preceding three years
Chinas growth compression reported year-over-year basis masks the severity
its recent down shift. translation these figures into sequential quarterly changes,
such those reported the United States, suggests that Chinese GDP and industrial
output growth were the flat slightly negative territory 2008 came end.
seen from this real-time perspective, the Chinese economy hit wall late last year. Such abrupt downshift implies will extremely difficult for China achieve the
governments GDP growth target for 2009. outcome closer 6%, even lower, distinct possibility. China hardly oasis prosperity crisis-torn world.
For nation long focused social stability, this growth shortfall worrisome
development. has already taken serious toll Chinese employment. The
government has now acknowledged job losses coastal export manufacturing businesses over 15% million workers the nations pool some 120 million migrant
workers. the export and GDP shortfall persists, more slack would open the
Chinese labor market raising long dreaded risks worker unrest. remain convinced
that the Chinese leadership will everything its power avoid such outcome.
But this global recession, the challenge daunting, say the least. 09/0117015
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Asia: China-Centric and Peril has become conventional wisdom proclaim that the 21st century would the Asian
Century. Chinas miraculous development story central this vision transformation
that many believe would inevitably push the pendulum global power from West
East. Its hardly exaggeration claim that such tectonic shift would turn the world
inside out. The Asia Dream exciting and powerful story- magnet financial and
human capital from all over the world. suspect may premature crack out the champagne The Asian century hardly
preordained most seem believe. The main reason, view, that the region
continues rely far too much exports and external demand. Developing Asias
export share hit record high 47% last year ten full percentage points from levels
prevailing the late 1990s (see Figure 4). That hardly speaks true economic power
that has become capable standing its own. the same time, there can mistaking the increasingly China-centric character
the Asian economy- another dimension the regions search for growth. China
boomed, the rest Asia was more than happy along for the ride. China-centric
supply chain led increasingly tighter pan-regional integration, with assembly lines
China drawing freely inputs and components from Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia,
Singapore, Indonesia, and elsewhere the region. Yet that dependence cuts both ways two-way causality that now complicating the here and now the Asian century.
noted above, the China boom was itself very much tied the record surge global trade.
But now with global trade contracting for the first time since 1982, Chinas export-led
impetus has been quick follow.
This has hit China-centric Asia extremely hard. The December 2008 export comparisons
were nothing short disastrous for the other major economies the region: For example,
Taiwans exports were down astonishing 42% y-o-y, with the Chinese piece off 56%;
Japans exports plunged 35%, with the Chinese piece off 35%; and Korean exports fell
17%, with the Chinese piece also off 35%. all three these cases, China had become
each countrys largest trading partners recent years accounting for 28% total
Taiwanese exports, 23% Korean exports, and 16% ofJapanese exports. But now that
the Chinese export machine has screeched standstill, the rest the region has
weakened even more. This puts Asian spin old adage. When China sneezes, the
rest Asia catches bad cold. convinced that the Asian century coming. But the risk that may take lot
longer than widely presumeq. All this underscores the biggest test the Asian century the ability the region stand more its own the event external shock. the
late 1990s, was external funding shock. Today, external demand shock.
These developments should put the region notice that its leadership agenda far from
complete. Until export-led growth gives way increased support from private
consumption, the dream the Asian century likely remain just that. 09/01/2015
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016
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America: Bubble-Prone and Externally Dependent
There can little doubt that this global crisis started America. The ever-deepening
recession the economy very much outgrowth massive post-bubble
shakeout. began with housing but has now spread the biggest sector all the
American consumer. peak early 2007, consumption accounted for fully 72% real GDP record for the United States, and for that matter, record for any major
economy the modem history the world (see Figure 5).
The problem with this consumption binge that was not supported the
economys underlying income generating capacity. the now-ended expansion, private
sector labor compensation expanded unusually sluggish pace falling over $800
billion (in real terms) below the trajectory the previous four business cycles (see
Figure 6). The confluence subpar job growth and relative stagnation real wages left
consumers well short the labor income that would typically support booming
consumption. But that didnt stop the American consumer. Drawing freely asset
appreciation first equities and then housing consumers uncovered new sources
purchasing power The credit bubble was icing the cake enabling homeowners
extract equity little cost from ever-rising home values and then use the proceeds
fund current consumption and build saving for the future. Net equity extraction soared
from disposable personal income 2000 nearly 2006 (see Figure 7).
There are important consequences such bubble-dependent consumption and saving
strategy. Significantly, shifting the mix consumer support from income assets,
the United Sates drew down its domestic saving rate rock bottom levels. The net
national saving rate the sum household, business and government saving after
adjustment for depreciation plunged record low national income over
the 2002-07 period, and then actually tumbled into negative territory 2008 (see Figure
8). The global consequences this development are profound: Lacking domestic
saving, the United States was forced import surplus saving from abroad order
grow and run massive current account deficit order attract the capital.
The saving shortfall bubble-prone economy major source vulnerability.
During good times, made America increasingly dependent foreign lenders, such
China, fund economic growth. During bad times especially the aftermath the
bursting the property and credit bubbles triggered massive consolidation assetdependent consumption. Real consumption expenditures fell 3.6% average
annual rate the final two quarters of2008 the first time the post-World War era
when consumer demand fell more than for two consecutive quarters.
Despite the unprecedented contraction consumption late 2008, there good reason believe the capitulation the American consumer has only just begun. The
consumption share GDP has fallen only about one percentage point from its 72%
peak still leaving this gauge four full percentage points above the pre-bubble norm
67% that prevailed from 1975 2000. this basis, only about 20% the consumers 09/01/2015
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mean reversion has been completed. Notwithstanding the extraordinary monetary and
fiscal stimulus measures that have recently been put place authorities., the postbubble deleveraging the American consumer likely enduring feature
Americas macro landscape ove~ the next 3-5 years.
Therein lies the essence massive and sustained global demand shock. The American
consumer the biggest consumer the world (see Figure 9). And consumption
growth has long outstripped far more sluggish gains elsewhere the developed world.
Little wonder the post-bubble capitulation the American consumer proved decisive undermining the external demand underpinnings for China and for the rest exportdependent Asia. Nor likely over quickly. This multi-year headwind imparted sustained weakening the growth consumption could well the most
powerful force shaping the demand side the global economy for years come.
Mounting Bi-Lateral Tensions
The current global crisis poses new challenges the relationship between the United
States and China- quite conceivably the worlds most important bilateral relationship
the 21st century. Those challenges were underscored the recent Senate confirmation
hearings Americas new Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, when accused the
Chinese currency manipulation. Moreover, with the recession and
unemployment high and rising, there good reason fear that Geithner comments
were just warning shot more China bashing the horizon.
This unfortunate outgrowth the blame-game mentality that has long been
prevalent Washington. During tough times, politicians apparently need scapegoats deflect attention away from the role they have played creating serious problems.
Wall Street being singled out for causing the financial crisis-: despite regulatory and
central bank complicity and China, with its large bi-lateral trade deficit with the United
States, being blamed for the pressures bearing down American workers.
Washingtons logic for turning tough China trade policy based largely three
factors outsize bilateral trade deficit between the two nations that hit record $256
billion 2007, long-standing claims RMB currency manipulation, and seemingly
chronic stagnation real wages for American middle class workers. Fix the China
problem, goes the argument, and unfair pressures workers will relieved.
This argument deeply flawed. The main reason that the US-China trade deficit did
not arise vacuum. noted above, bubble-prone, saving-short economy needs import surplus saving from abroad order keep growing. That also means must
run massive current account and trade deficits attract that capital. The US-China trade
deficit, along with deficits with 100 Americas other trading partners is, fact,
important outgrowth that problem. America has multi-lateral trade imbalance not
bilateral problem driven unfair Chinese competition. China has the largest bilateral na1n11?n1
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016
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piece Americas multilateral deficit not because the value its currency but
mainly because conscious outsourcing decisions multinationals.
Nor the evidence the so-called undervaluation the Chinese renminbi nearly
conclusive many experts seem believe. For starters, the RMB nearly
against the dollar (in real terms) since China abandoned its currency peg over three
years ago. Moreover, recent academic research puts the RMBs multilateral
undervaluation the order only 10% hardly major advantage for China (see YinWong Cheung, Menzie Chinn, and Eiji Fujii, Chinas Current Account and Exchange
Rate, January 2009 working paper the National Bureau Economic Research).
Significantly, these same researchers demonstrate that Chinas bilateral and
multilateral trade flows are not nearly sensitive movements its currency the
RMB bashers would want believe.
Nevertheless, US-China trade diminished closed down through forced RMB
revaluation, tariffs, other means, saving-short e~onomy will still need run
large multi-lateral trade deficit. That means will simply end shifting the Chinese
piece its external imbalance another trading partner. the extent that shift
directed toward higher-cost producer most likely the case the outcome will the
functional equivalent tax hike the already beleaguered American middle class
But wont stop there. Undoubtedly, Chinese currency managers would retaliate
reducing their purchases dollar-denominated assets. And that would push the worlds
two great powers all the closer the slippery slope trade protectionism.
Avoiding such outcome strikingly reminiscent the trade wars the 1930s
triggered Americas infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs poses major ch.allenge the
body politic both nations. Thats particularly true for Americas new president.
Campaigning platform support for beleaguered middle-class American workers,
Barack Obama underscored his concerns about real wage stagnation era
unfettered globalization. The real wage issue serious issue. However, the challenge
for Washington determine the linkage between this issue and trade policy may
well that real wage stagnation related more Americas under-investment
human capital especially, lagging educational reforms and re-skilling programs
era rapid IT-enabled globalization than cross-border trade pressures. may
also that trade deficits are far more function flawed policies that discourage
saving problem thats now going from bad worse era trillion dollar budget
deficits. Resolving this dilemma, without derailing globalization, will early and
important leadership test for President Obama.
Dont Count Symbiosis economic terms, there can mistaking the natural symbiosis that has long existed
between America, the consumer and low saver, and China, the producer and high saver.
But this complementarity cannot taken for granted co-dependence that will
forever cement the bi-lateral ties between these countries. fact, may well that US- 09/0112015
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Chinese symbiosis nothing more than passing phase reflecting coincidence
mutual interests that will exist for only relatively brief period time. Yes, Jong
saving-short economy continues run massive current-account deficits support
the excesses personal consumption, needs lender like China provide foreign
capital. And long excess saving Chinese economy needs export-led employment
growth maintain social stability, needs the ~orlds largest consumer absorb its
ou~put.
But what happens those conditions change? America starts save more distinct
possibility for its over-extended post-bubble consumers the need borrow surplus
saving from China will diminish. Conversely, China starts spend more equally
likely possibility light its excessive reliance exports and investment will have
less surplus saving lend the United States. both these adjustments are perfectly
timed occur precisely the same moment, possible envision uninterrupted
symbiosis. The odds such exquisitely synchronized rebalancing both economies
are extremely low, view. That suggests the growing likelihood that symbiosis
likely give way disequilibrium adding new source tension the US-China
relationship.
Unfortunately, thats not the only source economic tension between the United States
and China. Over the 2005-07 period, fully pieces anti-China trade legislation were
introduced the Congress. While none these bills passed, that may change.
the unemployment rate now mounts ever-deepening recession, the politics
trade frictions may well gather greater support. Treasury Secretary Geithners warning Chinese currency manipulation especially worrisome that regard. The same can said the Buy America provisions that have slipped into Americas recently
enacted stimulus package. the same time, China must also sensitive the impacts its export-led growth
model its trading partners. Any subsidies either t.o its own domestic wages its
currency take heightened importance Chinas stature world trade grows.
now the second largest exporter the world, China can hardly afford take that
responsibility lightly. Moreover, China competes unfairly ignoring environmental
degradation and pollution, the world pays much greater price for the cross-border labor
arbitrage than simple comparison wages would suggest. the extent that costeffective outsourcing ignores environmental considerations, the real wage squeeze
relatively greener economies may all the more acute.
Resolving the complexities the US-China economic relationship urgent challenge
for unbalanced global economy. crisis-tom world now moves into severe
recession, the stakes can only grow larger. both the and Chinese economies
evolve and change, fleeting state symbiosis could well give way heightened
tensions. The time diffuse those tensions now- before its.too late. 09/.01/2015
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Chinas Policy Imperatives
Ironically, China saw many these problems coming. Two years ago, Premier Wen
Jiabao warned that the Chinese economy was unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and
unsustainable. Similar vulnerabilities were anticipated the lth Five-Year Plan
enacted 2006, which stressed Chinas need embark major structural
transformation from export- consumer-led growth.
But the governments execution this aspect its plan was lacking. particular,
failed build out institutionalized safety net the support system necessary temper
the fear-driven precautionary saving that inhibits the development more dynamic
consumer culture. result, the consumption share Chinese GDP fell record
low 36% 2007 underscoring the dark side Chinas macro imbalances that
now problematic this global crisis (see Figure 10). severe external demand shock
found unbalanced Chinese economy without back-up plan. pro-consumption rebalancing the only sustainable answer for China. Pro-active
fiscal stimulus measures, such the recently announced RMB4 trillion infrastructure-led
investment initiative, can help temporarily. Such efforts borrow page from Chinas
counter-cyclical script deployed the Asian financial crisis the late 1990s and again
the mild global recession 2000-0 But these actions are not enough compensate for
the structural vulnerabilities that Chinas externally-dependent growth model now face
American consumers begin multi-year retrenchment.
China needs bold and aggressive framing pro-consumption policies. should
start announcing major initiatives the safety net front Specifically, China should
sharply expand the funding its national social security fund, which currently has only
little over US$70 billion assets under management not even enough provide per capita lifetime retirement income for aging Chinese population. China also
needs move quickly establishing comprehensive private pensions scheme, well broaden its support nationwide health and unemployment insurance. Recent
passage RMB850 billion three-year medical reform plan encouraging but
small, step that direction.
The bottom line for China: Its unbalanced economy must rebalanced. The export-led
growth formula, which served the nation well for three decades, must now give way
the internal impetus consumer-led growth. For China, the imperatives such
rebalancing have never been greater. For the rest Asia say nothing
unbalanced global economy Chinas post-crisis economic leadership role hinges
i~portantly this critical rebalancing
mun117n1~
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Policy Risks
Needless say, weakened economy usually doesnt take kindly suggestions that
ought increase the value its currency. Thats especially the case for export-led
Chinese economy, where sequential growth slowed virtual standstill late 2008.
With overall economic growth remaning weak early 2009 and currently running well
below the 6-8% zone that China requires absorb surplus labor and maintain social
stability, the pro-cyclical implications tighter currency policy would only add
rriounting downside risks.
Little wonder that Treasury Secretary Geithners recent remarks currency
manipulation were met with incredulous response Beijing. While such strident
rhetoric hardly implies action, worth considering the consequences the war
words leads outright trade sanctions. The impacts would felt immediately
financial markets. Given Americas reliance Chinas funding its external deficit
reliance that can only grow era open-ended trillion dollar budget deficits the position risk reduced Chinese buying dollar-denominated assets. Yet
that exactly what might occur proud but wounded China retaliates currencyinduced trade sanctions imposed Washington.
Such retaliation could take the form China that simply doesnt show
upcoming Treasury auction. Thats hardly trivial consideration for United States
that needs about billion capital inflows each business day fund its current
account deficit. China fails provide its share Americas external funding, the
dollar could plunge and real long term interest rates could rise. dollar crisis the very
last thing recession needs. But could happen the turns rhetoric into
action the form imposing sanctions Chinese trade. short, Washington is.
treading increasingly thin ice blaming the Chinese currency for Americas woes.
post-bubble economy suffering from major shortfall domestic demand that
unlikely remedied China bashing. Saber-rattling this climate both illadvised and dangerous. the same time, equally important underscore what China should not do. First
and foremost, Chinese policymakers must not overly-optimistic counting the old
external demand model start working again. multi-year weakening the
consumer tantamount global consumption shock that will impart protracted drag any export-led economy. such, the imperatives Chinese rebalancing have never
been .greater. increasingly urgent that China shift its growth model from one that has
been overly reliant exports one that draws increased support from private
consumption.
Nor should China tempted use the currency lever other subsidies boost its
export sector era rising unemployment and mounting concerns the developed
world over the benefits globalization, such efforts could recipe for anti-China
trade sanctions. previously noted, those actions might then prompt China
m:un11?n1~
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reconsider its role one Americas most important overseas lenders. And then,
was the case the 1930s, the race the bottom could on.
Wake-Up Call
There has long been dispute over the English language translation the Chinese word
for crisis. One popular view that weifi roughly translates into the compound
phenomenon both danger and opportunity. Unfortunately, that meaning correct
not has been lost world crisis Today, more than ever, world crisis and
recession needs pull together not push itself apart Globalization and its cross-border
connectivity through trade and capital flows leave with other choice
The blame game compl.etely counter-productive this environment. Those blaming
surplus-saving economies such China for Americas unsustainable spending binge
ought embarrassed. This problem and one that must addressed home
with new and disciplined approach monetary policy, tough regulatory oversight, and
more responsible behavior the part consumers and businesses, alike. bubbledependent economy that lived beyond its means for dozen years must now accept the
reality having live within its means and not holding others accountable for this
painful yet necessary adjustment.
Similarly, China needs accept that the export-led growth formula always had its limits. unprecedented external demand shock driven unheard synchronous recessions
throughout the developed world drives this point home with painful clarity. Economic
development not just about producing for others especially those others are
living beyond their means. the end, export-led growth must. eventually give way the
internal demand nations private consumers. China ready for this transition and
must begin the process soon possible. short, high time for unbalanced world begin the heavy lifting global
rebalancing. framing such adjustment the context the United States and
China1 the verdict clear: America needs save more and consume less, while China
needs save less and consume more.
Easier said than done. But world crisis can longer afford perpetuate unstable
status quo Global rebalancing not quick fix and therefore, not all that appealing myop.ic politicians. But the end, the only way put the world back
sustainable growth track. there silver lining this crisis, must the wake-up
call that sends politicians and policy makers throughout this unbalanced world.
************* nam1 t?n1
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939963 Date: 06/29/2016
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Ambassador
Ltds Lauredo
llauredo@hunton.com
Executive Director the first Presidential Summit the
Americas, (1994).
Washington
(202:) 955 1500 Phone
U.S. Coordinator for the Ill Presidential Summit the Americas
(2001).
Miami
(305) 8i0~2527 Phone
(305) 785-3600 Cen
U.S. Ambassador the Organization American States (OAS).
Commissioner the Florida Public Utilfties Commission.
Ba~ground
Eic:perience
Export-Import Bank the U.S. (Ex-Im Bank) Senior Vice President
R1presented the President the United States Special U.S. Ambassador
the Inaugurations the Presidents-of Costa Rica, Venezuela, Colombia, and
Bra:til
U.S. Presidential Advisory Board Trade (ACTPN)
U.S. Presidents Representative the Southern Governors Energy Board
UNESCO. U.S. Commission
Director, International Commerce, State Florida
Exacutive Director, Free Trade Area the Amerir,as (FTAA) Trade Ministerial
(2003)
Pan American Development Foundation Trustee
Councilman, Village Key Biscayne, Florida
Government Peru: Awarded Great Cross the Order for Distinguished
SeNkie (2006) :Government Ecuador Presidential Elections (2002) International Monitor
Goveiilment Argentina Recipient, Order San Martin
Peru San Ignacio Loyola University Trustee
.Government Peru International Facilitator, Peru National Agenda (2002)
SPAIN U.S. -Spain Chamber Director 1unmn W1l,1nms
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Doc No. C05939963 Date: 06/29/2016 ~{.!:.,{:}{}>f
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939963 Date: 06/29/2016
HUNTON
WILLIAMS
City Miami International Council Vice Chairman
University Miami International Advisory Board
Baptist Hospitals System International Advisory Board
100 Influential Hispanics Hispanic Business magazine
Ambassador
Luis Lauredo
Columbia University Outstanding Alumnus Award
Education
University Madrid, Spain
Columbia University, New York
Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C.
Languages
Spanish; Portuguese 09/01/2015
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939963 Date: 06/29/2016
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939994 Date: 06/29/2016
Morgan Stanley
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Doc No. C05939994 Date:
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UNCLASSIFIED U,S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939994 Date: 06/29/2016
Figure Labor Income Shortfall :--
135
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