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Judicial Watch • Pgs. 287-293 (291) JW v DOD and State 14-812

Pgs. 287-293 (291) JW v DOD and State 14-812

Pgs. 287-293 (291) JW v DOD and State 14-812

Page 1: Pgs. 287-293 (291) JW v DOD and State 14-812

Category:Obtained Document

Number of Pages:7

Date Created:May 18, 2015

Date Uploaded to the Library:May 18, 2015

Tags:Iraq


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CLASSIFICATION:
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I4=iL=0552/DNA/I 28*/ DEPART (Mr
lNFORMA1lION REPORT. NOT LFIKNIALJLY EVALIJATED FNTEILLIGENCE
COUNTRY: (U) IRAQ (IIRQ).
DOI: (U) 20120730.
M=L=U552 HA/ 1288
THE GENFRAI. IUATION INTERNALIY. EVFNTS {TAKING CLEAR SECTARI/N DIRIECTION. THE SALAFIST. TIIIE MUSLIM RROTHIERIIOOD, AND AQI ARE THE MAJOR FORCES
DRIVING TI-IE INSURGENCY SVIRIA. THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIESI AND TURIQEY SUP?O.RT TIIE OPPOSITION. WHILE
RUSSIA. CHINA AND IRAN SUPPORT THE REGIMF. THE REGIMES PRIORITY CONCENIRATE ITS PRES ENCE AREAS
ALONG THE COAST (TARTUS, AND JFAKIA); HOWEVER, HAS NOT ABANDONED
I-IOIVIS BECAUSE CONTROLS II-IE 1/IA.IOR1I ANSI OI-UTA ION ROI.I1ES SYRIA.
TI-IE REGIME DIECI %SI ITS CONCENTRATION AREAS ADJ/ICEN IIl; IRAQI
BORDERS (AL I-IASAW ANI) DER XOR). G3;AL QAEIDA IRAQ (AQT) AQI FAMILIAR VI/ITJH SYRIA AQI TIIAIHVILD SYRIA THEN
INFILTRATED INTO IRAQ,
I3, AQI SUPPORTFD THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION JFIRUIVI IH]E EINNING, BOTH
IDEOLOGICA {OUGH THE MEDIA. AQI DECLARIEI3 ITS OPJPOSWION
ASSADS GOVERNMENT /CAIISJE CONSIDERED SIECTARIAN RILGIMIE.
TARGEIING SUNNIS, AQI CONDUCT NUMBER OJF DPER/HIONS /ElR.rI. SYRIAN CITIES
IINDER THE NAME JAISH IKIUSRA (VICTORIOUS ARIVIY), CINE (II7
AE*FILIAIIES.
I). AQI. THIROUGII THE ESMAN THE ISLAMIC STAH3 IRAQ (ISI), ABU
MUI-iAM1VI. I. ADNANI. DECLAREI) THE SYRIAN REGIME THE SPEARHIEAD
NI-IAT RUWAFDII (FOREJFRONT 0]? THE SHIITES) BECAUSE ITS (THE SYRIAN Rt,(jI1/IE) DECLAR.ATION ()1? WAR THE SUNNIS
ADDITIONA HIE CALLING TIIE SUNNIS IRAQ, HS}- CI/I.I,Y THE RIBES THE BORDER REGIONS (EETIVI/IZ{N IRAQ AND SYRIA), WAGE WAR
AGAIUVST THE SYRIAN REGIME. REG/1RDIIIG SYRIA INFIDEI. REGIME FOR
ITS SUPPORT THE INI- IDIEI, PARTV IIEZBOILLAII, AND OTHER REGIMES
MwL:Q552LDJA./_2L89
CONSIDEIRS DISSENTI LII. IRAN AND IRAQ, AQI CONSIDERS THF. INNI ISSUE IRAQ FATF.}7UI,LV. CONNECTFEI7
QIINNI AND MII I.IMI$
/.4. {Q} THE BORDERS. II-I13 EORIJERS B151 WEEN SYRIA AND IIIRAQ SIREI CI-I APPROXIMUXTEILY )I)I{M
WITII COMPLI}{ TER .AIN CONSISTING VAST DESER I/IOUNIAIN RANGES
(SINIAR MOUNTAINS}, JOINT RIVERS (FLOWING BOTH SIDES). AND
AGRlI. UI.IURAI. ILANDS.
I-I. IRAQ l)IRECTI,! NEIGHBORS THE SYRIAN PRI.)4 INCIiS HAS/ AND DER
ZUIR, WELL. (SYRIAN) CI[ AIDJACENI TIIE IRAQI BORDER. TIIE LAND BOTH SIIIIRS I3.F.TWF_EN IRAQ AND SYRIA VAST DESERT
PUNCTUATED V/.LLEYS, AND LACKS TRAI ,SIORTATION ROUTES, WITH THE
EXCEPTION TI-IE INTBRIIAI[ONAL HIGHWAY AND SOME MAJOR CITIES THIS UI.AIION LIVING TIIE BORDER: POPULATION LIVING TI-IF BORDER HAS SOCIAI. TREBA]L STYLE.
WIIICII BOUND STRONG TRIE/ AND IFAMILIAI. MARITAL TIES.
IS, THEIR SECTARJAN AFFILIATION UNITES THE TWO SIDIES WIIEN EVENTS
II.API THE REGION AQI HAD MAJOR POCKETS ANI) BASES IBOTI-I SIDES THE BCRIJIER
FACII_lI AIE THIZ FLOW /IAI I;IRIEI_ AND RECRUITS. TIIERIE WAS RIEGRESSION AQI THE WI:SII:RN PROVINCES IRAQ
DURING THE YEARS 2005 AND ZGIO; IOWI:VI:R, /LI J.I RISIE THE
INSURGI-LNCY II SYRIA IrIF, RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL POWERS THE REGIONS
BEGAN SYIVIF/IHI SEC III .IIIG THIS ISYMI sTIIv)
APPIEARED FRIDAY PRAYER SIERMONS. WIIICH CAILLEJD FOR VOLUNTEERS
SIII PORI THIE SUNNI SYRIA, (G) TI-II? SITIIATION THE IRAQI AND SYRIAN BORDER THREE BORDER BDES ARE SUFFI( .IENII10 CONTROL THE BORDERS DURING
PEACE TIME FOR OBSERVATION DUTIES AND JENT SMIJCGLING AND
INFII.TRAIIOI PREVIOUS YEARS MAJORITY /QI FIGHTERS ENI
PR_IMAR.II_Y VI/S. TIIF. SYRIAN BORDER. 65? THE I7U URIF. ASSUMPTIONS TIIIE CRISIS. HIi RECvIl /II-L WILL SUI- (VIVE AND HAVE CONTROL /F/IR SYRIA IOR
I4~L~@552/DIA/ 290 DEVELOPMENT THE CURRENT EVENTS I.NI R(_)){ WAR: WITII SUPTORT
FROM RUSSIA, CHINA, ANTI IRAN. THE REGIME CONTROLLING THE AREAS
INFLUENCE ALONG COASTAL TERRITORIES (1AI=1TlJS AND LATAKJA), AND
FIEKC-ELY IIPEJFIENDING HOMS. WI-IICII CONSIDERED TIIIL LII/IARY
TRANSPORTATION ROUTE RI/. TI-IE. (.VIIrII:R HAND, OPPOSITION FORCES
ARE TRYING CONTROL TIIE EASTEILN AREAS (}IASA]. AND DER ZOR),
ADJACENT THE WESTERN IRAQI PROVINCES (MOSUL AND ANIBAR),
ADDITION NEIGIJIBORING TURKISIH BORDE ESTEI-LN COUNTRIES, THF. GULF
STATILS AND TURKIEY ARE SUITORTING TIIESL .1. OIRTS. TIIIS IIYPOTIIESIS
MOST LIKELY ACCORDANCE WITH TIIL, DATA TROM ILZCENT EVENTS, WIIICI-I
WILL HELP PREPARE SAFE HAVENS UNDER INTEIENATIOIVAI. SHEIIIL5I{ING, SIMILAR VVI-IATTRANSPIRED LIIBYA WIIEN BENUIIAZ1 WAS CHOSEN COMMAND NTIiR OI? TIIJE TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT (6) TH}: F1FECIS IRAQ :11 039 FORCES
RETJREATED FROM THE BORDER AND THE OSITlON EORC (SYRIAN FREE
ARMY) TOOK OVER THE POSTS AND RAISED TIIEIR FLAG. THE LRAQI BORDER
GUARD FORCES IFACING BORDER WITH SYRIA THAT NOT GUAIRDED
OFFICIAL LEMENl WIIICII PRESENTS DANGERUIIS AND SERIOUS TI-IRIEAT. HI: (7JPI()SITJOJI FORCES WILL TRY USE IRAQI TERRITORY
SAIFI7. HAVEN FOR ITS FORCES TAKING AIL7VA.NTAC-E THE SYMPATIIY TIIE
IRAQI BORDER POPULATION. EANWIIILE TRYING RIECIRUIT FIG-IITERS AND RAIN TIIEM THE IRAQI SIDE, ADDITION ILARBORING R.EIUGEIES
(SYRIA) THE SITUATION UNR./ /IELS TIIERI3 POSSIBILITY ESTAJBLISHING JDECLARED UNDECLARED SALAJFIST IWJNCIPALI EASTERN SYN./K
(HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND TEIIS EXACTLY THE SUI ()RTING I0WERS THE OPPOSITION WAN ORDER ISOLATE TILE SYRIAN REGIME, WI-IICI-I CONSIDERED THE STRATEGIC DI:I II-I THE SI-IIA EXJPANSION {IRAQ AND
IRAN). THE DETIERIORATION THE SITUATION I-IAS DIR!-.7 CONSEQUENCES THE
IRAQI SITUATION ARF. I~0l,I.OWS. -1. THIS CRIEATES TIIE IDEAL ATMOSII- EF.RF. ()I{ AQI RETURN ITS OLD
IPOCICETS MOSUI, AND RAIVIADI, AND WILL PROVIDE RENIEWIEI) MOI/IFNTUM
LINDEI( TIIEZ IMP OI? UNIFYINO TI. IIHIAD AMONG SUNNI IRAQ ANID
SYRIA, AND THE REST THE SUNNIS TII WORLD AGAINST WHAT
CONSIDERS ONE EIJEMY,THI1 DlSSEN1.5R.S ISI COULD ALSO DECLARE
ISLAMIC STATE TIIIROUGI-I ITS UNION WITH OTHER lI:I< .RORIST ORGANIZATIONS
IRAQ AND SYRIA, WHI(I~I WILL CRJEATIE GRAVE DANGER REGAJRDS LINIFYING
IRAQ AM) THE PROIIZCTI()N OI: ITS I:JRRI IORY.
I4=L=U55;2LT1IAI QJI THE RDNEWING AC![LI AlION TIERROIRISI ELEMENTS FROM ALL OVER
THE ARAB WORLD ENTERING INJlO IRAQI ARENA.
x:. .s:g4,4
M~L_=0552/I/~/ 292 @I<
#3497
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CLASSIFICATION: L-= 552/HA/ 293