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MEMO: IMMIGRATION AND THE GOP AGENDA JANUARY 29, 2014 TO: HOUSE REPUBLICAN COLLEAGUES FROM: RANKING MEMBER JEFF SESSIONS President Obamaafter five years openly and aggressively defying federal immigration lawis now demanding that House Republicans adopt immigration plan has intention enforcing. Republicans must end the lawlessnessnot surrender itand they must defend the legitimate interests millions struggling American workers. Attached this memo are the key findings from staff the Budget and Judiciary Committees regarding the negative impact that the immigration proposals moving through Congress would have American workers, taxpayers, and the rule law. You will also find objective polling datanot misleading polls from special interestsdemonstrating the depth which these measures are repudiated working and middle class voters from all backgrounds. And finally, included summary document the opposition from conservative thought leaders the proposals under consideration. Where Stand Coordinating with small group the nations most powerful special interests, last year President Obama and Senate Democrats forced through immigration bill which can only described hammer blow the American middle class. Not only would grant work permits millions illegal immigrants time record joblessness, would also double the annual flow new immigrant workers and provide green cards more than million permanent residents over the next decade. These new workers, mostly lesser-skilled, will compete for jobs every sector, industry, and occupation the U.S. economy. Under current law, our nation provides green cardslegal admission, permanent residency, and the ability apply for citizenshipto approximately million largely lesser-skilled immigrants each year. Under the Senate Democrat White House plan, the number green cards would more than triple decade: would expedite the applications nearly million previous applicants, offer green cards million current illegal immigrants, and increase the regular annual flow least percent, million immigrants over decade. Together, that provides for minimum million green cards, number that could grow substantially result ensuing chain migration. Over the last six years, 6.8 million Americans left the workforce and million were added the food stamp rolls. For the first time history, the majority food stamp recipients are now working-age adults. The urgent moral task before our nation undertake robust effort transition millions Americans from welfare and dependency work and rising wages. The Presidents immigration plan antithetical that goal. record influx new immigrant workers will benefit certain CEOs who want lower labor costs, well certain politicians and interest groups. But will only further hollow out shrinking middle class. Consider the recent complaint Bill Marriott, the global hotel magnate who has been lobbying for such immigration measures. Marriott said immigration bill was needed help staff positions that might otherwise unfilled, especially our seasonal resorts. What about hiring unemployed Americans? House Republicans, crafting immigration principles, should reply the Presidents immigration campaign with simple message: our focus help unemployed Americans get back worknot grant amnesty answer the whims immigration activists and CEOs. turn, that message could joined with detailed and unifying policy agenda for accomplishing that moral and social objective. The Wrong Approach Yet, according news reports, House Republican leaders are instead turning 2014 into headlong rush towards Gang-of-Eight style immigration reform. They are reportedly drafting immigration plan that uncomfortably similar piecemeal repackaging the disastrous Senate planand even privately negotiating final package with Democrat activists before consulting with their own members. three essential components, the GOP leaders plan appears similar the Senate Democrat White House plan: grants work permits almost immediately illegal immigrants compete against unemployed Americans for any job; substantially expands the flow new immigrant workers, including drastic surge unskilled workers; and provides amnesty and the ability for large number those here illegally apply for citizenship through green cards. the rush pass immigration bill, there has been near absence any serious thought about the conditions facing American workers. The last years has been period record immigration the U.S., with the last years seeing more new arrivals than any prior 10year period history. This trend has coincided with wage stagnation, enormous growth welfare programs, and shrinking workforce participation rate. sensible, conservative approach would focus lifting those living here today, both immigrant and native-born, out poverty and into the middle classbefore doubling tripling the level immigration into the U.S. sensible immigration policy would also listen the opinion the American people. Not the opinions the paid-for consultants trotted out with their agenda-driven polls GOP member meetingsbut the actual, honest opinion the people who sent here. There reason why none the corporate-funded ads for amnesty breathe word about doubling immigration levels. According Rasmussen Reports, working and middle class Americans strongly oppose large expansions our already generous immigration system. Those earning under $30,000 prefer reduction increase overwhelming 3-1 margin. But while these details will never introduced the donors and consultants who lecture about why must get board with their brilliant plan, the facts are well known everyday citizens living the real world outside Washington, D.C. According recent study, between 2000 and 2013 the number American workers with jobs declined more than million even the population working-age Americans increased more than million. During that same time, the number jobs held immigrant workers increased more than million. Bill Kristol recently urged the GOP abandon this newest immigration push, saying that the guiding principle should harm. Instantly legalizing millions new workers would course enormous harm the struggling and the unemployed. Better Agenda The GOPs 2014 agenda should not assist the President passing his immigration plan. Rather, should consuming focus restoring hope and opportunity millions discouraged workers. The GOPs 2014 agenda should national effortannounced proudly and boldlyto reduce the welfare rolls and get America back work, including: More American energy that creates good-paying jobs right here the U.S. more competitive tax and regulatory code that allows U.S. businesses and workers compete level global playing field trade policy that increases U.S. exports and expands domestic manufacturing immigration policy that serves the interests the American people Converting the welfare office into job training center Making government leaner and more accountable U.S. taxpayers Restoring economic confidence continuing our effort balance the federal budget all-out immigration push inimical these goals. Peter Kirsanow, the Republican appointee the U.S. Commission Civil Rights, recently wrote: The assurances the [Gang Eight] bills proponents that the bill will somehow help the economy obscure copious evidence that the bill will wreak enormous damage the employment prospects American workers who have already seen their wages and employment rates plummet over the last several years. Why would Republicans want follow similar path the House? Republicans should honor our clear duty defend the core interests the American workers who form the backbone this nation. And they should tell the Presidents CEO lobbyists, loudly for all hear: dont work for you; work for the American people. MYTH FACT TABLE CONTENTS Special Privileges And Special Paths Special Path/Green Card page Amnesty Not? page This Debate Will Full And Open page Crushing The Middle Class Public Opinion page Guest Worker/Labor Shortage page Amnesty, Welfare page Immigration Reform Helps The Economy page Shooting Ourselves The Foot Enforcement Triggers First page This Ends Illegal Immigration page Will Force President Obama Enforce The Laws page MYTH VS. FACT Special Privileges and Special Paths MYTH: THERE SHOULD SPECIAL PATH CITIZENSHIP FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BROKEN OUR IMMIGRATION LAWS. Fact: Any path that leads green card for someone who currently ineligible for green card because they violated U.S. immigration laws, such the Senate bill, special path citizenship. The Wall Street Journal describes the current House citizenship plan follows: last summer, leading lawmakers have sketched out the basic idea. Give illegal immigrants who qualify legal status, but promise citizenship effort try satisfy both sides. Instead, offer them the chance access existing opportunities gain legal permanent residence, also known green card. Once someone has (Jan. 27, 2014, emphasis added) addition, the House plan reportedly includes expedited path citizenship for so-called DREAMers, providing even larger magnet for future illegal immigration than birthright citizenship. According one report, the House approach would grant green cards estimated 4.4 million 6.5 million illegal immigrants. (National Foundation for American Policy, Jan. 2014). addition, even - plan rewards those who have disobeyed our laws allowing them remain the country qualify for public benefits, and creates the same incentive for others enter the country illegally. And regardless, Democrat Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D- citizenship this year, [pro-amnesty groups] will back next year and the year after Associated Press, Jan. 2014) any event, all such proposals favor those who have broken our laws over those who follow our laws because allows them live, travel, and work the U.S. privilege not bestowed those who wait line their home countries. This erodes the rule law. MYTH: THIS NOT AMNESTY BECAUSE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WILL HAVE PAY FINES, #17;!#18; !E E! EGH !D #18;#18; !D ! #17;!#18;GD #18;HE#18; Fact: Like the Senate plan, the House plan provides legal status and work authorization first the fundamental grant amnesty. Any plan that provides such special privileges those who are the country illegally today, but does not extend the same privileges those who enter the country illegally tomorrow, amnesty. Proponents the Senate bill claimed the fines and fees that illegal immigrants would have pay gain legalization would cover the cost the massive bill. But the bill riddled with waivers and loopholes, including permitting installment payments and outright exemptions, and the amount was even less than the rejected 2007 immigration bill. Moreover, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services currently offers waivers for those who cannot afford certain fees. Why would this administration not waive these requirements once again? The claim that illegal immigrants will required pay . Even back taxes were somehow paid dubious claim best the amount collected would pale comparison the amount tax dollars paid illegal immigrants, such the billions free tax credits claimed each and every year. Even the sponsors the Senate bill eventually were forced concede that the back taxes provision their bill was illusory and toothless. (Politico, April 18, 2013). Moreover, the bill did not even attempt address collection state, local and employment back taxes. fact, according Politico: E [about the Senate bill] included requiring applicants file complete work history with salary information that the IRS could backtrack those wages figure out how much should owed. That idea was quickly dismissed during consultations with the IRS, D (Politico, April 18, 2013) the former chief economist the U.S. Department Labor, Diana Furchtgott-Roth, (#18;ollecting Immigrants #17;ack Taxes: Impossible Dream, Policy Perspectives, Mar. 11, 2013) Because 2000 IRS ruling, illegal immigrants who are disqualified from receiving the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) can retroactively receive the EITC for years worked without Social Security number they receive amnesty. (IRS Office Chief Counsel, Memorandum #200028034, July 14, 2000) Moreover, the IRS conservative nonprofit groups and selective enforcement Obamacare the very least calls into question how the agency would handle the politically-charged task collected back taxes owed illegal immigrants. Just proponents the Senate bill claimed, the House proposal touted requiring that illegal immigrants learn English and civics obtain legalization. The Senate bill actually imposed this requirement only for green card, and even E many cases, the Secretary Homeland Security was given the authority waive this requirement. Current law already requires immigrants learn English. Anything less than current law would favor those who have violated our laws over those who follow them. Proponents the House proposal have said that illegal immigrants will have pass background checks obtain legalization. Kenneth Palinkas, head the USCIS union the agency responsible for background checks stated that, currently USCIS adjudications officers are pressured rubber stamp applications instead conducting diligent case review and investigation. The culture USCIS encourages all applications approved, discouraging proper investigation into red flags and discouraging the #18; (Press Release, American Federation Government Employees, Council 119, May 20, 2013) There would doubt intense political pressure complete amnesty applications quickly possible, and the number illegal immigrants who the CBO projects would legalized under the Senate bill more than four times the number approved the 1986 amnesty, which was described The New York Times perpetrated against the United State -fourth all successful amnesty applications were fraudulent. For example, 1993 World Trade Center bomber ! E claimed farmworker, was given amnesty 1986, which enabled him travel Afghanistan where joined terrorist training camp and later re-enter the U.S. (Center for Immigration Studies, Feb. 26, 2013) Moreover, has been reported that the administration currently rubberstamping DE! ! program (DACA), which are being approved rate over percent. (USCIS Office Legislative Affairs, Dec. 18, 2013) And, recently was reported that the federal government filed complaint against the company had hired handle the background investigations for Edward Snowden and the Navy Yard shooter for fraudulently submitting least 665,000 incomplete background investigations for government personnel. (The Washington Post, Jan. 23, 2014) Finally, was revealed during the Senate debate that the Senate bill did not require the Secretary Homeland Security conduct face-to-face interviews with single amnesty applicant, even though they are necessary determine national security and law enforcement risks. Indeed, according Mr. Palinkas, present USCIS lacks the resources adequately screen and scrutinize legal immigrants and non-immigrants let alone the tens millions who would seek legalization. (Press Release, American Federation Government Employees, Council 119, May 20, 2013) MYTH: HE G! EF DE#17;!E #17;E F !D E EG!E #18;E Fact: Just the Senate, where the sponsor the bill negotiated secret for months H being negotiated behind the scenes. ! G are seeking the support Democrat Luis Gutierrez and House leadership staff meeting secret with business groups and technology trade organizations who advocate for unlimited foreign labor have buy- (Politico, Jan. 23, 2014) House leadership meeting with corporate elites like Mark Zuckerberg and the U.S. #18; #18; law enforcement officers who have requested heard. (CBS DC, Sept. 18, 2013, The Washington Post, Jan. 24, 2014) While the Speaker has ruled out House-Senate conference the Senate bill, one has ruled out going conference with the Senate piecemeal bills, which will inevitably result the Senate bill, noted Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) November: H get hrough the Gang Eight bill. That will basically put more pressure the Speaker basically put the floor. looking going into conference th having conservative policy enacted the end. why would want step into that ultimately produce bill this year, legislation this year, that can sent the #17; #17; H s getting H D wants bring the bill the floor, pieces big chunks whatever is, just want see legislation come the floor that Congress can act upon that legislation, the House can, and send the conference table with the H G tiate the notion bringing #17; (Rep. Luis Gutierrez, Nov. 2013) #18; Oct. 31, 2013) H (Sen. Chuck Schumer, Aug. 2013) Crushing The Middle Class MYTH: ! ! F !E#18;! G! EF Fact: So- foreign workers) overwhelmingly opposed the American public and opposition growing. Only percent Americans think immigration reform priority. (Gallup, Jan. 15, 2014) path citizenship even though they voters strongly oppose. (Esquire-NBC News, Oct. 15, 2013) percent Americans support decrease legal immigration and only percent support increase. (FoxNews, April 2013) percent likely voters strongly believe that American companies should try harder recruit and train unemployed Americans instead hiring foreign workers. (Pulse Opinion Research, Aug. 15, 2013) While the majority lower-and middle-income voters, political moderates, and conservatives oppose increases immigration, the wealthy, politically well-connected, and liberals support increases immigration. (Rasmussen, Jan. 17, 2014) Pew Research Center and CBS polls this year found that over percent Americans want the current legal immigration levels either held constant reduced. Tellingly, Rasmussen found that support for increase was skewed towards upper-income Americans earning over $200,000. (Daily Caller, May 17, 2013) percent Americans think legalization should come only after the border secured, and only percent actually believe the government would immigration reform passed. (Rasmussen, Oct. 2013) MYTH: E EED GE E G! F !#17; H!GE !D #17; H! !E#18;! D Fact: soon illegal immigrants are granted legal status and work authorization, they will able compete for any job anywhere America are not simply talking about agricultural workers and roofers. Only percent immigrants and guest workers admitted under the Senate bill, for instance, are doing farm work the other percent would working every sector the U.S. economy. According reports, House proposals, like the Senate bill, will include huge influx foreign workers. According CBO, the Senate bill would add million new permanent residents 2033. CBO also confirmed that the number guest workers would increase 2.8 million 2033 under the Senate bill. Americans have been clear about their views immigrat workforce. percent Americans support decrease legal immigration and only percent support increase. (FoxNews, April 2013) percent likely voters believe there are more than enough unemployed Americans fill any labor shortages. percent said employers should raise pay levels attract more candidates. (Pulse Opinion Research, Aug. 2013) Immigration laws should not tailored the demands corporate America they must reflect what the national interest and the American people. According the Bureau Labor Statistics, the number Americans who want work but have stopped searching 2.1 million. Over million Americans are outside the labor force entirely. According Dec. 2013, repo #18; Americans over the age participate the job market meaning they either driven partly Baby Boomers retiring, but also workers who had simply ! H G #18; MYTH: THOSE GRANTED LEGALIZATION WILL HAVE ABLE SUPPORT THEMSELVES AND THEIR FAMILIES AND WILL NOT HAVE ACCESS WELFARE. Fact: illegal immigrants are legalized, they will become almost instantly eligible for federal welfare benefits they have U.S.-born children and for payments from state and local governments. These costs will increased substantially the future chain migration. (U.S. Senate Budget Committee Minority, June 18, 2013) Once those amnestied become legal permanent residents, they themselves will eligible for even more federal welfare benefits and Obamacare. (U.S. Senate Budget Committee Minority, April 2013) #18; retirement programs. The Senate bill was estimated cost taxpayers least $2.5 trillion Medicare and Social Security alone above any taxes paid in. addition, the long-term unfunded liability for Obamacare would grow another trillion. (U.S. Senate Budget Committee Minority, April 18, 2013) One-third all children poverty the U.S. live immigrant households. Nearly half immigrant families earn less than 200 percent the poverty level, making them eligible for many means-tested welfare programs. Immigrants are half again more likely use welfare than native-born, with majority households headed immigrants from Latin America using least one taxpayer-funded welfare program. And immigrant families account for nearly third those without health insurance and more than two-thirds the growth the uninsured over the past decade. (Center for Immigration Studies, Aug. 2012) Legal immigrants with green cards have access all but two nearly federal welfare programs. Public charge law currently goes unenforced, and House proposals not address this endemic flaw our legal immigration system. MYTH: G! EF HE HE E#18; !D EGHE #18;! E#18; Fact: Naturally, adding million new permanent residents will increase GNP. But per-capita GNP, according CBO, will decline along with average wages. other words: passing so-called immigration reform would mean larger number people out work, welfare and struggling make ends meet. Because those given legal status and Social Security number are, average, somewhat younger, claimed that their Social Security payments will strengthen Social Security. This totally false. While these workers will, the short term, infuse the Social Security trust fund with more money, most will eventually draw Social Security benefits, drawing out more than they will have paid over time, thus making the Social Security trust fund less sound over the long run. One cannot count the money that paid Social Security being available strengthen Social Security immediately used pay for the cost this program. Shooting Ourselves The Foot MYTH: #17;DE E#18; !D EF#18;EE #18;E F !D EG!! #18;! H!E E GGE H!E #17;EE EEED Fact: percent Americans think legalization should come only after the border secured, and only percent actually believe the government would immigration reform passed. (Rasmussen, Oct. 2013) Proposals that grant that illegal immigrants any type legal status, work authorization, and/or legal residence allowing them live, travel, and work any profession the U.S. before enforcement measures designed prevent future illegal immigration are fully implemented the very least completion border fencing, implementation the statutorily-mandated biometric exit system, universal and mandatory E-Verify, and enforcement current immigration laws will ensure that enforcement never occurs. Legalization will first, immediate, and irreversible; the most that any so-called triggers will delay the process obtaining green card and/or citizenship. Similarly, any proposal that grants any type legal status, work authorization, and/or legal residence while enforcement measures are supposed implemented will ensure that the enforcement never occurs. Additionally, illegal immigration advocates will fight further delay any new enforcement laws soon the amnesty provisions into effect which will immediately just Democrats did after the 1986 amnesty. (National Review, July 2013) Proposals that provide for plans, commissions, studies so- the Senate bill does will allow amnesty occur without the border ever being secured, and actually weaken current law, which requires: H necessary and appropriate achieve and maintain operational control over the Fence Act 2006) Operational control the borders, which means prevention all unlawful entries. (Secure Fence Act 2006) biometric entry-exit system all ports entry. (2004 Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act, which streamlined five previously passed laws starting with the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigration Responsibility Act 1996, and the 2007 9/11 Commission Implementation Act) Notably, CBO found that the Senate bill would lead increase visa overstays due the increase guest workers. (CBO Cost Estimate for 744, June 18, 2013) MYTH: !G G! EF AND FIXING THE BORDER WILL END ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. Fact: Nothing being discussed the House, the bill that passed the Senate, will stop illegal immigration. Sealing the border only part the equation the problem will continue long President Obama refuses comply with our and continues his anti-deportation and anti-enforcement policies. Even CBO found that the Senate bill which would weaken current interior enforcement laws and undermine future enforcement would allow percent illegal immigration continue perpetuity. (CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf Letter Hon. Patrick Leahy, July 2013) estimated that 40% the illegal population enter the country legally with temporary visa and then overstay the original period admission. CBO estimated that under the Senate bill, visa overstays would increase due the increase guest workers. (CBO Cost Estimate for 744, June 18, 2013) The GAO repeatedly has said that without biometric exit system which Congress has mandated several statutes and was recommended the 9/11 Commission DH identifying and removing those people who have overstayed their original period Tom Kean and Lee Hamilton, the chair and vice-chair the 9/11 Commission, have stated: Full deployment the biometric exit component US-VISIT should high priority. Such capability would have assisted law enforcement and intelligence officials August and September 2001 conducting search for two the (Tenth Anniversary Report Card: The Status the 9/11 Commission Recommendations, Aug. 31, 2011) However, even biometric exit system was established, the administration has prohibited U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents from arresting and removing anyone for overstaying visa, entering the country illegally, using fraudulent identification documents even the agents believe that individual presents risk public safety. (Testimony Chris Crane, President, National ICE Council, U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee, April 22, 2013) President Obama has handcuffed immigration agents and officers and decimated interior enforcement: President Obama deported fewer than 0.2 percent the 11.7 million illegal immigrants the U.S. 2012 the lowest deportation rate among every administration since President Carter. (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, FY2013 ICE Immigration Removals) cases are closed each year, with percent increase FY2013. (TRAC Reports, Syracuse University, Jan. 15, 2014) November 30, 2013, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has received 627,763 applications for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (i.e., DREAM Act) program. the requests received, 509,926 have been approved and only 14,614 denied. These policies have led U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers file lawsuit against the administration, wherein U.S. District Court Judge Reed #18; DH proceedings [where the law requires it]. (Crane Napolitano, Civ. No. 3:12-cv03247-O, April 23, 2013) December 13, 2013 order, U.S. District Court Judge Andrew Hanen stated: #18; D Homeland Security completing the criminal mission individuals who are (U.S. Nava-Martinez, Criminal No. B-13-441-1, Dec. 13, 2013) already have highly successful employment verification system E-Verify which, made mandatory for all employers, would significantly reduce the incentive for illegal immigrants enter the country and help employers maintain legal workforce. ! #18; E-Verify has experienced exponential growth, increased accuracy and high customer- annual enrollments increasing tenfold during the first years, from 11,474 FY1996 111,671 FY2012. Today, over half million companies use the system. (USCIS Office Legislative Affairs, Jan. 23, 2014) 98.8 percent work-authorized employees are automatically confirmed instantly within hours, requiring further employee employer action. (Id.) Users gave E-Verify score out 100 the 2012 American Customer Satisfaction Index survey. The average score for all government agencies was 67. (Id.) Because the strong integrity the system, state departments motor identity documents. (Id.) learned with the 1986 amnesty, unless there committed enforcement laws such these, illegal immigration will continue. 10. MYTH: CONGRESS WILL FORCE PRESIDENT OBAMA ENFORCE THE TOTALITY ANY LAW PASSED. Fact: The President has constitutional duty take care that the laws faithfully abysmal. For example: Since becoming law 2010, President Obama has waived suspended provisions Obamacare, including the employer mandate for entire year and . (Galen Institute, Jan. 21, 2014) 2010, the President unilaterally implemented part the DREAM Act, despite having been rejected Congress three times and despite his prior public statements that did not have the authority so. D #18; E! forth the law, President Obama directed the EPA unilaterally expand its jurisdiction anyway. Further, January 2012, President Obama violated the Constitution when assigned three members the National Labor Relations Board during session the Senate. Liberal law professor Jonathan Turley testified before the House Judiciary Committee December 2013 : There could greater danger for individual liberty. And really think that the Framers would horrified that [The situation] the most serious constitutional crisis, believe, lifetime And now, the Obama administration forecasting that 2014, plans ignore Congress and act unilaterally multiple domestic policy fronts. Just has done with other laws, President Obama will decide which provisions any immigration law wants enforce and given the track record this administration, one can certain that any and all enforcement legislation will delayed and ignored once illegal immigrants have received immediate amnesty. ! Show, Jan. 16, 2014) The Economic Effects Massive Immigration Chart Book The great public policy question whether the United States should continue admitting about one million immigrants year under current law, triple that number proposed the recently passed Senate bill, has now come the House. This question momentous not only because our immigration system needs reforming, but primarily because proposals include massive increases migrant flows addition the legalization millions currently residing the U.S. illegally. Given the poor state the economy and the abysmal condition the federal budget, immigration reform has become the cutting edge vigorous debate over our countrys economic future and reform federal programs that drive unsustainable annual deficits. Significantly increasing the inflow immigrants would adversely shock already weak economy, lower average wages, increase unemployment, and decrease each Americans share national output. the Congressional Budget Office observed its evaluation the Senates effort increase immigration, the economy might bigger because would contain more people, but would not stronger. GDP per person would actually decline. Considering the acute, current weakness labor markets and the slowest economic recovery since the end World War II, the last thing the U.S. economy needs enormous, harmful economic shock. focus key indicators distress labor markets. The millions Americans who are unemployed, underemployed, who have dropped out the labor force entirely will the first feel the adverse effects job competition from additional immigrants. then touch the desperate condition working family incomes. And the chart book concludes reviewing CBOs analysis the Senate comprehensive reform bill. Still Have Not Seen Jobs Recovery 2007 Levels Six Years After Start Recession Our economy still has three people looking for every job [opening]. Gene Sperling President Obamas long-time economic advisor, CNN, Jan. 2014 Labor market still not recovered: significant expansion immigrants would occur time substantial weakness U.S. labor markets. The current economic recovery has been too slow produce healthy growth employment. The chart below shows that after months, still have fewer jobs than had December 2007 when the recession began, even though the population has increased each year.1 Indeed, the economy has produced 4.7 million jobs since the recovery began 2009, but 6.8 million people have dropped out the labor force. This amazing statistic, that dropouts exceed newly employed, unprecedented the post-World War period. The graphics this paper are taken from presentation current labor market problems given January 23, 2014, Dr. Keith Hall, former commissioner the Bureau Labor Statistics and current fellow the Mercatus Center, from the CBO analysis 744, June 2013; and from original work Republican staff the Senate Committee the Budget. Employment Has Not Even Begun Recover Collapse percentage adults working: The percentage the population that works also has failed recover from the recession. the end 2013, 58.6 percent the adult population was employed. This down from 62.7 percent the start the recession, and the percentage has been stuck about 58.6 since September 2009. the same percentage the population worked today worked the start the recession, would have 10.1 million more jobs. 2007 there were 146 million Americans employed. Today there are 144.6 million. the same time, the population those older than years age has grown 13.5 million. Far from producing enough jobs keep with population growth, the economy providing few choices for adults other than joblessness temporary, part-time work. Key Working-Age Population Dropping Out Key labor age group dropping out: These depression-era labor statistics come into even sharper relief when look the all-important age group, 54. The economy depends this age group for most its labor. Unfortunately, the labor force participation rate (those working looking for work) this age cohort has been freefall since the middle the recession. Working Family Incomes Falling, Not Rising growth working family income: Working America highly stressed. Jobs just arent being created nearly the rate keep with population, and millions are simply dropping out. make matters even worse, the Census Bureau reported August 2013 that the incomes working families have been decline since 2007 (after adjusting for inflation).2 Median Family Income Decline Since 2007 Median Income 2012 Dollars 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 U.S. Census Bureau, Income Poverty, and Health Insurance the United States: 2012 (Washington, DC: 2013). Table A-1. What CBO Says About The Economic Effects Large Increases Immigration against this difficult economic background that immigration reformers want massively increase the number work visas increasing the flow legal migrants and legalizing those the country without documents: basically increase from million new workers over period available compete for any job. Such increase would: depress wages among low-and high-skilled native-born workers and decrease the average wage across the entire economy, raise the national unemployment rate, and slow the growth per capita output. These are some the conclusions reached last June the Congressional Budget Office its review 744, the Senates comprehensive immigration bill. CBO used sophisticated economic modeling and panel leading academics estimating the economic effects the Senates bill. Lets examine each these impacts separately. Depresses wages: CBO concluded based extensive academic evidence that low-and high-skilled native-born workers would compete wage disadvantage with similarly skilled immigrants. CBO wrote: Based CBOs reading that research, percent increase the labor force attributable immigration has tended lower the relative wages for all workers with less than high school diploma roughly 0.3 percentand lower the relative wages for workers with least college degree roughly 0.1 percent.3 CBO, The Economic Impact 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, (June, 2013), 19. CBOs analysis 744 shows that average wages across the entire economy would lower for the first years the policy change. (See graphic above). CBO draws heavily from the academic work George Borjas and other leading labor economists. Dr. Borjas has found number very interesting economic implications from increased immigration. For example: Dr. Borjas recently noted that immigration from 1960 through 2012 (the last year for which had data) has cost native-born workers average $402 billion lost wages, while native-owned firms gained $437 billion income.4 other words, finds the increase for business almost entirely paid for the decline wages earned non-immigrant workers. High Levels Immigration Reduce Wages and Increase Profits 500 400 300 200 100 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 $437 Billion Loss Non-Immigrant Workers Gain Non-Immigrant Businesses -$402 Billion George Borjas, Labor Market Impact Immigration: Summary the Evidence, Presentation the Congressional Budget Offices Macroeconomics Advisory Panel, June 14, 2013. The impact increased immigration from 1980-2000 resulted decrease wage for average native workers, and decrease for high school dropouts. 10% increase the size skill group (i.e. high school drop-outs) reduces wages that group 3-4%.5 Immigration has its largest negative impact the wage native workers who lack high school diploma, group that makes modest (and, recent decades, shrinking) share the workforce. These workers are among the poorest Americans. The children these workers make disproportionate number the children poverty: 24.8 percent all children the native-born working poor live households headed high school dropout.6 Dr. Borjas not alone any means drawing these conclusions from the available data. For example, economists the Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta wrote 2008: result the growth undocumented workers, the annual earnings the average documented worker Georgia 2007 were 2.9 percent ($960) lower than they were 2000 [A]nnual earnings for the average documented worker the leisure and hospitality sector 2007 were 9.1 percent ($1,520) lower than they were 2000.7 Some may not think that losing $960 earnings very much, but real blow low-income household. Thats monthly loss $80 dollars, week groceries for family four. CBO also drew the work the prominent labor economist David Card, who found that increases low-skilled immigration reduced wages similarly skilled native-born populations: the research implies that immigrant inflows over the 1980s reduced wages and employment rates low-skilled natives traditional gateway cities like Miami and Los Angeles 1-3 percentage points.8 Given this academic research, little wonder that CBO underscored this wage effect. Higher Unemployment: However, not only lower wages that working Americans will have bear, but higher unemployment well. The rapid increase the immigrant population, especially the low-skilled segment the income distribution, will overwhelm the ability the economy produce jobs. Thus, CBO estimates that 744 would raise the number unemployed Americans during the first five years annual average 162,000 and that unemployment would remain elevated through 2020. This stunning conclusion, especially when compared with what CBO argued its 2013 Outlook. their Budget and Economic Outlook February 2013, CBO projected only 75,000 additional jobs per month during the last five years the current 10-year budget window, 2019 through 2023. other words, the increase unemployed Americans that CBO projects will equal full month average employment gain for the first five years after enactment. todays job growth rate, that additional unemployment like losing about month job gains: are currently averaging around 170,000 new jobs per month. Lower Economic Output: you might expect, the lower wages and higher unemployment reflect economy thats not growing fast enough absorb all the new workers and keep with income growth. While the size the economy expands because the larger population, the growth rate not fast enough raise wages lower unemployment. CBO estimates that GNP per capita will fall below baseline (that is, what would happen absent passage the immigration bill) and stay below baseline until 2030. This decline GNP per capita due the failure the economy grow fast enough keep with immigration-driven population growth and the fact that the vast majority the projected new workers will low-skilled. CONSERVATIVE THINKERS AND IMMIGRATION EXPERTS CONGRESS IMMIGRATION PLANS National Review editorial, January 27, 2014: For now, nothing worth having can pass the Democratic Senate get signed into law President Obama. Rank-and-file conservatives the House should firmly reject the course that their leadership wants take, and convince reconsider. Bill Kristol and Rich Lowry joint op-ed, July 2013: The last thing low-skilled native and immigrant workers already here should have deal with wage-depressing competition from newly arriving workers. Nor the new immigration under the bill panacea for the long-term fiscal ills entitlements, often argued, because those programs are redistributive and most the immigrants will low-income workers. James Antle III (American Conservative) op-ed, January 27, 2014: Increasing legal immigration and adding business-friendly guest-worker programs top that may one way address the lowest labor force participation rate since 1978but not the best approach for American workers. Victor Davis Hanson op-ed, June 18, 2013: The elites simply turn blind eye out-of-work Americans, the low wages illegal laborers, and the cynicism using human capital and letting the state pick the subsequent social costs. Laura Ingraham, July 10, 2013: Some folks the GOP establishment are determined work with Democrats support ineffective bill that would lead more illegal immigrants, lower wages, and higher unemployment. Most Republicans the Senate opposed this bill, most conservative commentators and virtually all members the GOP the House. Peter Kirsanow (U.S. Civil Rights Commissioner) op-ed, June 11, 2013: History shows that granting such legal status [to illegal immigrants] not without profound and substantial costs American workers. Does Congress care? Thomas Sowell op-ed, June 11, 2013: Virtually every kind work that Americans will not do fact work that Americans have done for generations. many cases, most the people doing that work today are Americans. Bill Kristol op-ed, July 15, 2013: [The Senate bill contains] huge increase immigration that bill, two three times the number immigrants over the next decade over the last decade. And that bad for working class and middle class wages and economic opportunity this country. And think thats something Republicans need get serious about. National Review editorial, June 17, 2013: The creation large population second-class workers undesirable from the point view the American national interest, which should our guiding force this matter The United States nation with economy, not economy with nation. Investors Business Daily editorial, January 27, 2014: For the GOP, the only immigration measure that belongs the agenda this year securing the border, national security priority that need not accompanied amnesty anything else. David Frum op-ed, March 11, 2013: The immigration debate often premised the assumption that high wages for American workers are problem overcome. Rich Lowry op-ed, Jan 10, 2014 The letter President Obama organized Representative Brooks and signed more than dozen his colleagues, including Arkansas Senate candidate Tom Cotton exactly the case Republicans should making, the Chamber and other business interests line behind importing many cheap workers into the country possible. Hugh Hewitt op-ed, January 27, 2014: The Senate immigration bill ignited fury among conservatives not because was proposing regularization but because was again absurdly silly about border security with laundry list stuff one asked for and yet serious provisions for long, strong fence. John Fund op-ed, April 2013: Team Obamas backup plan may that they cant sucker enough Republicans into backing bad bill, they can sabotage the final product, see collapse, and then have political cudgel bash Republicans both insensitive Hispanics and dismissive their conservative base. Then, the theory goes, Democrats could win back control the House the 2014 elections and pass immigration bill their own without messy compromises. Rush Limbaugh, June 21, 2013: Members the House can say and promise anything. have president and have courts who dont care what the law says. Has President Obama shown any evidence fidelity existing immigration law? The answer no. Bill Kristol op-ed, February 2014 Issue: Bringing immigration the floor insures circular GOP firing squad... With respect immigration reform, which isnt must-pass, leadership should let die. The guiding principle should harm. Tucker Carlson, December 2012: Does the United States need massive new numbers the low-skilled immigrants post-industrial economy? that good for the United States? Byron York column, September 11, 2013: At the same time [some] corporate officers seek higher numbers immigrants, both low-skill and high-skill, many their companies are laying off thousands workers. Kenneth Palinkas (head U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services employees union) letter Congress, July 30, 2013: I cannot stress enough how ill-equipped USCIS engage the sort far-reaching plans before Congress right nowincluding both the enormous legalization programs proposed well the historic increases both immigrant and non-immigrant visas. Chris Crane (head Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers union) letter President Obama, February 11, 2013: We are given directions, both verbal and written, that prevent from being able arrest those who are clear violation the law and who may even pose threat public safety Until these concerns are resolved, fear that any enforcement mechanisms future immigration bill will, like the laws already the books, not enforced. George Borjas and Lawrence Katz, The Evolution the Mexican-Born Workforce the United States, National Bureau Economic Research, Working Paper 11281 (April, 2005). George Borjas, The Labor Demand Curve Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact Immigration the Labor Market, National Bureau Economic Research, Working Paper 9755 (June 2003). Julie Hotchkiss and Myriam Quispe-Agnoli, The Labor Market Experience and Impact Undocumented Workers, Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta Working Paper Series, Working Paper 20087c (June, 2008). David Card, Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Market Impacts Higher Immigration, Journal Labor Economics, 19, no. January 2001.