JW v State Abedin production 9 00684 (Searchable)
Number of Pages:296
Date Created:August 12, 2016
Date Uploaded to the Library:August 12, 2016
Donate now to keep these documents public!
See Generated Text ∨
Autogenerated text from PDF
United States Department State Washington, D.C. 20520 June 30, 2016 Case No. F-2015-06322 Segment: IPS-03, IPS-10 Mr. William Marshall 425 Third Street SW, Suite 800 Washington, 20024 Dear Mr. Marshall: refer our letter dated May 31, 2016, regarding the release certain Department State material under the Freedom oflnformation Act (the FOIA), U.S.C. 552. Our review ongoing, and have determined that additional documents may released full, 130 may released with excisions, and must withheld full. All released material enclosed. enclosure explains the FOIA exemptions and other grounds for withholding material. Where have made excisions, the applicable exemptions are marked each document. All non-exempt material that reasonably segregable from the exempt material has been released. For the documents withheld full, have cited FOIA Exemptions and U.S.C. 552 (b)(5) and (b)(6). will keep you informed your case progresses. you have any questions, your attorney may contact Trial Attorney, Caroline Anderson, (202) 305-8645 Caroline.J.Anderson@usdoj.gov. Please refer the case number shown above all correspondence about this case. Sincerely, Eric Stein, Acting Co-Director Office Information Programs and Services Enclosures: stated. The Freedom Information Act USC 552) FOIA Exemptions (b)(1) Withholding specifically authorized under Executive Order the interest national defense foreign policy, and properly classified. E.O. 12958, amended, includes the following classification categories: 1.4(a) 1.4(b) 1.4(c) 1.4(d) 1.4(e) Military plans, systems, operations Foreign government information Intelligence activities, sources methods, cryptology Foreign relations foreign activities the US, including confidential sources Scientific, technological, economic matters relating national security, including defense against transnational terrorism 1.4(f) U.S. Government programs for safeguarding nuclear materials facilities 1.4(g) Vulnerabilities capabilities systems, installations, infrastructures, projects, plans, protection services relating national security, including defense against transnational terrorism 1.4(h) Information weapons mass destruction (b)(2) Related solely the internal personnel rules and practices agency (b)(3) Specifically exempted from disclosure statute (other than USC 552), for example: ARMEX CIA EXPORT FSA INA IRAN Arms Export Control Act, USC 2778(e) Central Intelligence Agency Act 1949, USC 403(g) Export Administration Act 1979, App. USC 2411 (c)(1) Foreign Service Act 1980, USC 4003 4004 Immigration and Nationality Act, USC 1202(f) Iran Claims Settlement Act, Sec 505, USC 1701, note (b)(4) Privileged/confidential trade secrets, commercial financial information from person (b)(5) lnteragency intra-agency communications forming part the deliberative process, attorney-client privilege, attorney work product (b)(6) Information that would constitute. clearly unwarranted invasion personal privacy (b)(7) Information compiled for law enforcement purposes that would: (A) interfere with enforcement proceedings (B) deprive person fair trial (C) constitute unwarranted invasion personal privacy (D) disclose confidential sources (E) disclose investigation techniques (F) endanger life physical safety individual (b)(8) Prepared for government agency regulating supervising financial institutions (b)(9) Geological and geophysical information and data, including maps, concerning wells Other Grounds for Withholding Material not responsive FOIA request, excised with the agreement the requester UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939542 Date: 06/29/2016 From: Sent: Jiloty, Lauren To: hdr22@clintonemail.com RE. Voice mail Wednesday, Fehruary 11, 2009 Subject: RELEASE FULL 1111 going set todoy, and Ill get lhc password and download your messages. -Orlginnl Mei;Nogcfrom (ma11lo.hdf2l@clintonemo1l.coml Senl: Wednesday, February 2009 11:41 To: Jiloty, 1.aurcn Subj~cl: Vu1ce mdrl The phone says Rnow vo1ccmails. Original Message From .,Lauren Jiloty hdr22@clintoncm com Sent: Feb 11, 2009 10.28 Subject: Voi~e mail have your new munber. asked Justin about Monday and said voice maii hadnt )et been sel Ill ask him again Original Message From. [m3ilto:hdf22@cllntonemail com] Sent: Wedne~day. Fehruory 2009 To: Jiloty, Lauren Subject: Vorce mail you have new number you can check messages 09/01/2015 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939542 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939545 Date: 06/29/2016 From: Senc: To: Subject: Wednesday, Fe~ruary 11, 2009 :42 Lauren Jiloty Call list Judi ~ial Watch Inc. Via FOIA RELEASE FULL lls add Ron Dellums. 09/01/2015 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939545 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 Wake-Up Call/or the and China: Stress Testing Symbiotic Relationship RELEASE FULL Stephen Roach Chairman Morgan Stanley Asia Presented before The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission the Congress Hearing Chinas Role the Origins and Response the Global Recession February 17, 2009 Washington, 09/01/2015 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 Wake-Up Call/or the and China: Stress Testing Symbiotic Relationship Stephen Roach Since the turn the century, two nations have been more important driving the global economy than the United States and China The American consumer has been the dominant force the demand side the global economy, whereas the Chinese producer has been the most powerful force the supply side. Few argued with the payback. Over the four and half years ending mid-2007, world GDP growth averaged nearly the strongest and most sustained boom the global economy since the early 1970s. But now both engines are sputtering, with ominous consequences for world its worst crisis since the 1930s. This poses great challenges for each nation, well the bilateral relationship between them. There hope but comes with big China and the United States pull together forging common solutions. However, these two nations end odds with one another, they will both suffer with dire consequences for the rest crisis-torn global economy. The stakes are enormous. There margin for error. World Crisis nation has been spared the impacts this wrenching financial crisis and recession. While Americas so-called subprime crisis may have been the spark that ignited the inferno, every region this globalized world now faltering lock-step fashion. That includes China long the most resilient economy otherwise weakened world. And includes the rest increasingly China-centric Asia, where all economies either have tumbled into outright recession are slowing sharply. Ten years after the Asian financial crisis wreaked havoc the region, new crisis hand. Far from having decoupled from the rest the world, Asias problems and Chinas particular are tightly linked the crisis and recession that started America and have since spread like wildfire throughout the developed world. These problems have arisen, large part, because the unbalanced state both economies. Americas excess consumption model serious trouble because the asset bubbles that have long supported property and credit have both burst. Chinas export-led growth model trouble because being adversely impacted massive external demand shock that very much outgrowth Americas post-bubble compression consumer demand. The rest Asia export-dependent economies, which have become tightly integrated into China-centric supply chain has nowhere hide. Ten years after the wrenching upheaval 1997-98, Asia facing another crisis. 09/01/2015 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 Significantly, these imbalances did not occur isolation from each other. Americas consumption bubble was, effect, sourced equally destabilizing Asian export bubble. And now both sets bubbles have burst the demand side well the supply side the global economy. had happen some point: Long simmering global imbalances have finally come head post-bubble world (see Figure China: Unbalanced and Unstable During the boom, Chinas imbalances actually worked its favor. Over the 2001 2007 period, the export share Chinese GDP nearly doubled from 20% 36% while the global export share world GDP went from 24% (see Figures and 3). other words, Chinas timing was perfect. upped the ante its export dependence precisely the moment when global trade enjoyed its most spectacular growth. That effectively turbo-charged Chinas benefits from the strongest global boom since the early 1970s, powering GDP growth 10.4% average rate the seven years ending 2007. That was then. Reflecting the impacts rare synchronous recession the US, Europe, and Japan, the world trade boom has now gone bust. And Chinese exports, which had been surging 25% year-over-year rate recently mid-2008, reversed course with vengeance ending the year mode outright contraction, falling 2.8% December. With exports such large and rapidly expanding slice the Chinese economy, little wonder measures aggregate activity slowed equally dramatic fashion. Industrial output increased only December one-third the average growth pace the preceding five years. And real GDP growth ended the year just 6.8%-in sharp contrast the nearly 12% pace the preceding three years Chinas growth compression reported year-over-year basis masks the severity its recent down shift. translation these figures into sequential quarterly changes, such those reported the United States, suggests that Chinese GDP and industrial output growth were the flat slightly negative territory 2008 came end. seen from this real-time perspective, the Chinese economy hit wall late last year. Such abrupt downshift implies will extremely difficult for China achieve the governments GDP growth target for 2009. outcome closer 6%, even lower, distinct possibility. China hardly oasis prosperity crisis-torn world. For nation long focused social stability, this growth shortfall worrisome development. has already taken serious toll Chinese employment. The government has now acknowledged job losses coastal export manufacturing businesses over 15% million workers the nations pool some 120 million migrant workers. the export and GDP shortfall persists, more slack would open the Chinese labor market raising long dreaded risks worker unrest. remain convinced that the Chinese leadership will everything its power avoid such outcome. But this global recession, the challenge daunting, say the least. 09/0117015 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 Asia: China-Centric and Peril has become conventional wisdom proclaim that the 21st century would the Asian Century. Chinas miraculous development story central this vision transformation that many believe would inevitably push the pendulum global power from West East. Its hardly exaggeration claim that such tectonic shift would turn the world inside out. The Asia Dream exciting and powerful story- magnet financial and human capital from all over the world. suspect may premature crack out the champagne The Asian century hardly preordained most seem believe. The main reason, view, that the region continues rely far too much exports and external demand. Developing Asias export share hit record high 47% last year ten full percentage points from levels prevailing the late 1990s (see Figure 4). That hardly speaks true economic power that has become capable standing its own. the same time, there can mistaking the increasingly China-centric character the Asian economy- another dimension the regions search for growth. China boomed, the rest Asia was more than happy along for the ride. China-centric supply chain led increasingly tighter pan-regional integration, with assembly lines China drawing freely inputs and components from Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and elsewhere the region. Yet that dependence cuts both ways two-way causality that now complicating the here and now the Asian century. noted above, the China boom was itself very much tied the record surge global trade. But now with global trade contracting for the first time since 1982, Chinas export-led impetus has been quick follow. This has hit China-centric Asia extremely hard. The December 2008 export comparisons were nothing short disastrous for the other major economies the region: For example, Taiwans exports were down astonishing 42% y-o-y, with the Chinese piece off 56%; Japans exports plunged 35%, with the Chinese piece off 35%; and Korean exports fell 17%, with the Chinese piece also off 35%. all three these cases, China had become each countrys largest trading partners recent years accounting for 28% total Taiwanese exports, 23% Korean exports, and 16% ofJapanese exports. But now that the Chinese export machine has screeched standstill, the rest the region has weakened even more. This puts Asian spin old adage. When China sneezes, the rest Asia catches bad cold. convinced that the Asian century coming. But the risk that may take lot longer than widely presumeq. All this underscores the biggest test the Asian century the ability the region stand more its own the event external shock. the late 1990s, was external funding shock. Today, external demand shock. These developments should put the region notice that its leadership agenda far from complete. Until export-led growth gives way increased support from private consumption, the dream the Asian century likely remain just that. 09/01/2015 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 America: Bubble-Prone and Externally Dependent There can little doubt that this global crisis started America. The ever-deepening recession the economy very much outgrowth massive post-bubble shakeout. began with housing but has now spread the biggest sector all the American consumer. peak early 2007, consumption accounted for fully 72% real GDP record for the United States, and for that matter, record for any major economy the modem history the world (see Figure 5). The problem with this consumption binge that was not supported the economys underlying income generating capacity. the now-ended expansion, private sector labor compensation expanded unusually sluggish pace falling over $800 billion (in real terms) below the trajectory the previous four business cycles (see Figure 6). The confluence subpar job growth and relative stagnation real wages left consumers well short the labor income that would typically support booming consumption. But that didnt stop the American consumer. Drawing freely asset appreciation first equities and then housing consumers uncovered new sources purchasing power The credit bubble was icing the cake enabling homeowners extract equity little cost from ever-rising home values and then use the proceeds fund current consumption and build saving for the future. Net equity extraction soared from disposable personal income 2000 nearly 2006 (see Figure 7). There are important consequences such bubble-dependent consumption and saving strategy. Significantly, shifting the mix consumer support from income assets, the United Sates drew down its domestic saving rate rock bottom levels. The net national saving rate the sum household, business and government saving after adjustment for depreciation plunged record low national income over the 2002-07 period, and then actually tumbled into negative territory 2008 (see Figure 8). The global consequences this development are profound: Lacking domestic saving, the United States was forced import surplus saving from abroad order grow and run massive current account deficit order attract the capital. The saving shortfall bubble-prone economy major source vulnerability. During good times, made America increasingly dependent foreign lenders, such China, fund economic growth. During bad times especially the aftermath the bursting the property and credit bubbles triggered massive consolidation assetdependent consumption. Real consumption expenditures fell 3.6% average annual rate the final two quarters of2008 the first time the post-World War era when consumer demand fell more than for two consecutive quarters. Despite the unprecedented contraction consumption late 2008, there good reason believe the capitulation the American consumer has only just begun. The consumption share GDP has fallen only about one percentage point from its 72% peak still leaving this gauge four full percentage points above the pre-bubble norm 67% that prevailed from 1975 2000. this basis, only about 20% the consumers 09/01/2015 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 mean reversion has been completed. Notwithstanding the extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus measures that have recently been put place authorities., the postbubble deleveraging the American consumer likely enduring feature Americas macro landscape ove~ the next 3-5 years. Therein lies the essence massive and sustained global demand shock. The American consumer the biggest consumer the world (see Figure 9). And consumption growth has long outstripped far more sluggish gains elsewhere the developed world. Little wonder the post-bubble capitulation the American consumer proved decisive undermining the external demand underpinnings for China and for the rest exportdependent Asia. Nor likely over quickly. This multi-year headwind imparted sustained weakening the growth consumption could well the most powerful force shaping the demand side the global economy for years come. Mounting Bi-Lateral Tensions The current global crisis poses new challenges the relationship between the United States and China- quite conceivably the worlds most important bilateral relationship the 21st century. Those challenges were underscored the recent Senate confirmation hearings Americas new Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, when accused the Chinese currency manipulation. Moreover, with the recession and unemployment high and rising, there good reason fear that Geithner comments were just warning shot more China bashing the horizon. This unfortunate outgrowth the blame-game mentality that has long been prevalent Washington. During tough times, politicians apparently need scapegoats deflect attention away from the role they have played creating serious problems. Wall Street being singled out for causing the financial crisis-: despite regulatory and central bank complicity and China, with its large bi-lateral trade deficit with the United States, being blamed for the pressures bearing down American workers. Washingtons logic for turning tough China trade policy based largely three factors outsize bilateral trade deficit between the two nations that hit record $256 billion 2007, long-standing claims RMB currency manipulation, and seemingly chronic stagnation real wages for American middle class workers. Fix the China problem, goes the argument, and unfair pressures workers will relieved. This argument deeply flawed. The main reason that the US-China trade deficit did not arise vacuum. noted above, bubble-prone, saving-short economy needs import surplus saving from abroad order keep growing. That also means must run massive current account and trade deficits attract that capital. The US-China trade deficit, along with deficits with 100 Americas other trading partners is, fact, important outgrowth that problem. America has multi-lateral trade imbalance not bilateral problem driven unfair Chinese competition. China has the largest bilateral na1n11?n1 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 piece Americas multilateral deficit not because the value its currency but mainly because conscious outsourcing decisions multinationals. Nor the evidence the so-called undervaluation the Chinese renminbi nearly conclusive many experts seem believe. For starters, the RMB nearly against the dollar (in real terms) since China abandoned its currency peg over three years ago. Moreover, recent academic research puts the RMBs multilateral undervaluation the order only 10% hardly major advantage for China (see YinWong Cheung, Menzie Chinn, and Eiji Fujii, Chinas Current Account and Exchange Rate, January 2009 working paper the National Bureau Economic Research). Significantly, these same researchers demonstrate that Chinas bilateral and multilateral trade flows are not nearly sensitive movements its currency the RMB bashers would want believe. Nevertheless, US-China trade diminished closed down through forced RMB revaluation, tariffs, other means, saving-short e~onomy will still need run large multi-lateral trade deficit. That means will simply end shifting the Chinese piece its external imbalance another trading partner. the extent that shift directed toward higher-cost producer most likely the case the outcome will the functional equivalent tax hike the already beleaguered American middle class But wont stop there. Undoubtedly, Chinese currency managers would retaliate reducing their purchases dollar-denominated assets. And that would push the worlds two great powers all the closer the slippery slope trade protectionism. Avoiding such outcome strikingly reminiscent the trade wars the 1930s triggered Americas infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs poses major ch.allenge the body politic both nations. Thats particularly true for Americas new president. Campaigning platform support for beleaguered middle-class American workers, Barack Obama underscored his concerns about real wage stagnation era unfettered globalization. The real wage issue serious issue. However, the challenge for Washington determine the linkage between this issue and trade policy may well that real wage stagnation related more Americas under-investment human capital especially, lagging educational reforms and re-skilling programs era rapid IT-enabled globalization than cross-border trade pressures. may also that trade deficits are far more function flawed policies that discourage saving problem thats now going from bad worse era trillion dollar budget deficits. Resolving this dilemma, without derailing globalization, will early and important leadership test for President Obama. Dont Count Symbiosis economic terms, there can mistaking the natural symbiosis that has long existed between America, the consumer and low saver, and China, the producer and high saver. But this complementarity cannot taken for granted co-dependence that will forever cement the bi-lateral ties between these countries. fact, may well that US- 09/0112015 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 Chinese symbiosis nothing more than passing phase reflecting coincidence mutual interests that will exist for only relatively brief period time. Yes, Jong saving-short economy continues run massive current-account deficits support the excesses personal consumption, needs lender like China provide foreign capital. And long excess saving Chinese economy needs export-led employment growth maintain social stability, needs the ~orlds largest consumer absorb its ou~put. But what happens those conditions change? America starts save more distinct possibility for its over-extended post-bubble consumers the need borrow surplus saving from China will diminish. Conversely, China starts spend more equally likely possibility light its excessive reliance exports and investment will have less surplus saving lend the United States. both these adjustments are perfectly timed occur precisely the same moment, possible envision uninterrupted symbiosis. The odds such exquisitely synchronized rebalancing both economies are extremely low, view. That suggests the growing likelihood that symbiosis likely give way disequilibrium adding new source tension the US-China relationship. Unfortunately, thats not the only source economic tension between the United States and China. Over the 2005-07 period, fully pieces anti-China trade legislation were introduced the Congress. While none these bills passed, that may change. the unemployment rate now mounts ever-deepening recession, the politics trade frictions may well gather greater support. Treasury Secretary Geithners warning Chinese currency manipulation especially worrisome that regard. The same can said the Buy America provisions that have slipped into Americas recently enacted stimulus package. the same time, China must also sensitive the impacts its export-led growth model its trading partners. Any subsidies either t.o its own domestic wages its currency take heightened importance Chinas stature world trade grows. now the second largest exporter the world, China can hardly afford take that responsibility lightly. Moreover, China competes unfairly ignoring environmental degradation and pollution, the world pays much greater price for the cross-border labor arbitrage than simple comparison wages would suggest. the extent that costeffective outsourcing ignores environmental considerations, the real wage squeeze relatively greener economies may all the more acute. Resolving the complexities the US-China economic relationship urgent challenge for unbalanced global economy. crisis-tom world now moves into severe recession, the stakes can only grow larger. both the and Chinese economies evolve and change, fleeting state symbiosis could well give way heightened tensions. The time diffuse those tensions now- before its.too late. 09/.01/2015 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 Chinas Policy Imperatives Ironically, China saw many these problems coming. Two years ago, Premier Wen Jiabao warned that the Chinese economy was unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable. Similar vulnerabilities were anticipated the lth Five-Year Plan enacted 2006, which stressed Chinas need embark major structural transformation from export- consumer-led growth. But the governments execution this aspect its plan was lacking. particular, failed build out institutionalized safety net the support system necessary temper the fear-driven precautionary saving that inhibits the development more dynamic consumer culture. result, the consumption share Chinese GDP fell record low 36% 2007 underscoring the dark side Chinas macro imbalances that now problematic this global crisis (see Figure 10). severe external demand shock found unbalanced Chinese economy without back-up plan. pro-consumption rebalancing the only sustainable answer for China. Pro-active fiscal stimulus measures, such the recently announced RMB4 trillion infrastructure-led investment initiative, can help temporarily. Such efforts borrow page from Chinas counter-cyclical script deployed the Asian financial crisis the late 1990s and again the mild global recession 2000-0 But these actions are not enough compensate for the structural vulnerabilities that Chinas externally-dependent growth model now face American consumers begin multi-year retrenchment. China needs bold and aggressive framing pro-consumption policies. should start announcing major initiatives the safety net front Specifically, China should sharply expand the funding its national social security fund, which currently has only little over US$70 billion assets under management not even enough provide per capita lifetime retirement income for aging Chinese population. China also needs move quickly establishing comprehensive private pensions scheme, well broaden its support nationwide health and unemployment insurance. Recent passage RMB850 billion three-year medical reform plan encouraging but small, step that direction. The bottom line for China: Its unbalanced economy must rebalanced. The export-led growth formula, which served the nation well for three decades, must now give way the internal impetus consumer-led growth. For China, the imperatives such rebalancing have never been greater. For the rest Asia say nothing unbalanced global economy Chinas post-crisis economic leadership role hinges i~portantly this critical rebalancing mun117n1~ UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 Policy Risks Needless say, weakened economy usually doesnt take kindly suggestions that ought increase the value its currency. Thats especially the case for export-led Chinese economy, where sequential growth slowed virtual standstill late 2008. With overall economic growth remaning weak early 2009 and currently running well below the 6-8% zone that China requires absorb surplus labor and maintain social stability, the pro-cyclical implications tighter currency policy would only add rriounting downside risks. Little wonder that Treasury Secretary Geithners recent remarks currency manipulation were met with incredulous response Beijing. While such strident rhetoric hardly implies action, worth considering the consequences the war words leads outright trade sanctions. The impacts would felt immediately financial markets. Given Americas reliance Chinas funding its external deficit reliance that can only grow era open-ended trillion dollar budget deficits the position risk reduced Chinese buying dollar-denominated assets. Yet that exactly what might occur proud but wounded China retaliates currencyinduced trade sanctions imposed Washington. Such retaliation could take the form China that simply doesnt show upcoming Treasury auction. Thats hardly trivial consideration for United States that needs about billion capital inflows each business day fund its current account deficit. China fails provide its share Americas external funding, the dollar could plunge and real long term interest rates could rise. dollar crisis the very last thing recession needs. But could happen the turns rhetoric into action the form imposing sanctions Chinese trade. short, Washington is. treading increasingly thin ice blaming the Chinese currency for Americas woes. post-bubble economy suffering from major shortfall domestic demand that unlikely remedied China bashing. Saber-rattling this climate both illadvised and dangerous. the same time, equally important underscore what China should not do. First and foremost, Chinese policymakers must not overly-optimistic counting the old external demand model start working again. multi-year weakening the consumer tantamount global consumption shock that will impart protracted drag any export-led economy. such, the imperatives Chinese rebalancing have never been .greater. increasingly urgent that China shift its growth model from one that has been overly reliant exports one that draws increased support from private consumption. Nor should China tempted use the currency lever other subsidies boost its export sector era rising unemployment and mounting concerns the developed world over the benefits globalization, such efforts could recipe for anti-China trade sanctions. previously noted, those actions might then prompt China m:un11?n1~ UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 reconsider its role one Americas most important overseas lenders. And then, was the case the 1930s, the race the bottom could on. Wake-Up Call There has long been dispute over the English language translation the Chinese word for crisis. One popular view that weifi roughly translates into the compound phenomenon both danger and opportunity. Unfortunately, that meaning correct not has been lost world crisis Today, more than ever, world crisis and recession needs pull together not push itself apart Globalization and its cross-border connectivity through trade and capital flows leave with other choice The blame game compl.etely counter-productive this environment. Those blaming surplus-saving economies such China for Americas unsustainable spending binge ought embarrassed. This problem and one that must addressed home with new and disciplined approach monetary policy, tough regulatory oversight, and more responsible behavior the part consumers and businesses, alike. bubbledependent economy that lived beyond its means for dozen years must now accept the reality having live within its means and not holding others accountable for this painful yet necessary adjustment. Similarly, China needs accept that the export-led growth formula always had its limits. unprecedented external demand shock driven unheard synchronous recessions throughout the developed world drives this point home with painful clarity. Economic development not just about producing for others especially those others are living beyond their means. the end, export-led growth must. eventually give way the internal demand nations private consumers. China ready for this transition and must begin the process soon possible. short, high time for unbalanced world begin the heavy lifting global rebalancing. framing such adjustment the context the United States and China1 the verdict clear: America needs save more and consume less, while China needs save less and consume more. Easier said than done. But world crisis can longer afford perpetuate unstable status quo Global rebalancing not quick fix and therefore, not all that appealing myop.ic politicians. But the end, the only way put the world back sustainable growth track. there silver lining this crisis, must the wake-up call that sends politicians and policy makers throughout this unbalanced world. ************* nam1 t?n1 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939926 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939963 Date: 06/29/2016 NA: TTIO -fvv Nixs f,r}L}-~ 1..L11.Jlili Ambassador Ltds Lauredo llauredo@hunton.com Executive Director the first Presidential Summit the Americas, (1994). Washington (202:) 955 1500 Phone U.S. Coordinator for the Ill Presidential Summit the Americas (2001). Miami (305) 8i0~2527 Phone (305) 785-3600 Cen U.S. Ambassador the Organization American States (OAS). Commissioner the Florida Public Utilfties Commission. Ba~ground Eic:perience Export-Import Bank the U.S. (Ex-Im Bank) Senior Vice President R1presented the President the United States Special U.S. Ambassador the Inaugurations the Presidents-of Costa Rica, Venezuela, Colombia, and Bra:til U.S. Presidential Advisory Board Trade (ACTPN) U.S. Presidents Representative the Southern Governors Energy Board UNESCO. U.S. Commission Director, International Commerce, State Florida Exacutive Director, Free Trade Area the Amerir,as (FTAA) Trade Ministerial (2003) Pan American Development Foundation Trustee Councilman, Village Key Biscayne, Florida Government Peru: Awarded Great Cross the Order for Distinguished SeNkie (2006) :Government Ecuador Presidential Elections (2002) International Monitor Goveiilment Argentina Recipient, Order San Martin Peru San Ignacio Loyola University Trustee .Government Peru International Facilitator, Peru National Agenda (2002) SPAIN U.S. -Spain Chamber Director 1unmn W1l,1nms ... .~. ~!q~.~.~~~?.Jt~:t 1-14 -~6/h~)~l);,~5/{;;. Doc No. C05939963 Date: 06/29/2016 ~{.!:.,{:}{}>f UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939963 Date: 06/29/2016 HUNTON WILLIAMS City Miami International Council Vice Chairman University Miami International Advisory Board Baptist Hospitals System International Advisory Board 100 Influential Hispanics Hispanic Business magazine Ambassador Luis Lauredo Columbia University Outstanding Alumnus Award Education University Madrid, Spain Columbia University, New York Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C. Languages Spanish; Portuguese 09/01/2015 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939963 Date: 06/29/2016 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939994 Date: 06/29/2016 Morgan Stanley ..t t1/, ... /.p 1:11tlJl1rth 1.:s Clww f.l l-- --- 1.o- t-f .._.-...- ,,., ___, Morgan Stanley 11..,............; Jt~.,.,..$>; ....1,:-:w.... ...wu. ~:~ ~!.,. .:..;.:.:.*~~-:::~7;:,; :a/;.t::. .~~-::: ,~~1~:.~::;~~::~ Doc No. C05939994 Date: 06~S/~o{s,. 015 UNCLASSIFIED U,S. Department State Case No. F-2015-06322 Doc No. C05939994 Date: 06/29/2016 Figure Labor Income Shortfall :-- 135 Rtial Pth ute Compcnsnttmi LIO 1.ndtt I{)() lil lw;i!K-s> C;>d~ 1~~.h~ /w~ PA~t Cyd~ -cum:nt Crd~ 120 115 Jt(J lt~--lh ..h~rtfrrll; rns -~~is;.iwn,,,, !l.~Y. tJf diSJtrbl~ /J*m>n ine:- ti::< Nntiunnl ~adJtg (:tic ~ltio Pt:ttt) I.ht torn 1;1! r-~11 iilf0411~ d!J4iy .irea:ir.~~~ o#o .li!w~t chl)fOJlRd >ll~i r!lnr111~ ol~.O.w.i~ Sl!llllrl!--Ur.i: ~Xkltt 6